Family
Average Family Size, 1950-2006
|
number of |
people per |
|
families |
family |
year |
(’000) |
(average) |
1950 |
39,303 |
3.54 |
1955 |
41,951 |
3.59 |
1960 |
45,111 |
3.67 |
1965 |
47,956 |
3.70 |
|
number of |
people per |
|
families |
family |
year |
(’000) |
(average) |
1970 |
51,586 |
3.58 |
1975 |
55,712 |
3.42 |
1980 |
59,550 |
3.29 |
1985 |
62,706 |
3.23 |
|
number of |
people per |
|
families |
family |
year |
(’000) |
(average) |
1990 |
66,090 |
3.17 |
1995 |
69,305 |
3.19 |
2000 |
72,025 |
3.17 |
2006 |
74,564 |
3.20 |
US Population by Age
population |
||
age |
number |
(%) |
under 5 years |
21,009,914 |
6.9 |
5 to 9 years |
20,155,574 |
6.6 |
10 to 14 years |
19,981,265 |
6.6 |
15 to 19 years |
21,728,978 |
7.2 |
20 to 24 years |
21,186,421 |
7.0 |
25 to 34 years |
40,692,640 |
13.3 |
35 to 44 years |
42,338,149 |
13.9 |
45 to 54 years |
44,321,477 |
14.6 |
population |
||
age |
number |
(%) |
55 to 64 years |
33,720,059 |
11.1 |
65 to 74 years |
20,054,212 |
6.6 |
75 years and over |
18,635,957 |
6.1 |
total population |
303,824,646 |
100.0 |
under 20 years |
82,875,731 |
27.3 |
20 years and over |
220,948,915 |
72.7 |
65 years and over |
38,690,169 |
12.7 |
Living Arrangements of Children Under 18 in the US, 2006
Numbers in thousands (’000). Hispanics may be of any race. Detail may not add to total given because of rounding.
|
|
|
race |
|
living in household with: |
all races |
white |
black |
hispanic |
both parents |
49,650 |
41,573 |
3,884 |
9,685 |
mother only |
17,164 |
10,083 |
5,747 |
3,674 |
father only |
3,462 |
2,591 |
539 |
603 |
neither parent |
3,389 |
2,028 |
1,055 |
735 |
totals |
73,664 |
56,332 |
11,225 |
14,697 |
Children Under 18 Living Below the Poverty Level, 1983-2006
|
% of children below the poverty level |
number of children below the poverty level |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
asian/ |
|
|
|
|
asian/ |
|
|
|
|
|
pacific |
|
|
|
|
pacific |
|
year |
all1 |
white2 |
black2 |
islander2 |
hispanic |
all1 |
white2 |
black2 |
islander2 |
hispanic |
1983 |
22.3 |
14.8 |
46.7 |
N/A |
38.1 |
13,911 |
6,649 |
4,398 |
N/A |
2,312 |
1984 |
21.5 |
13.7 |
46.6 |
N/A |
39.2 |
13,420 |
6,156 |
4,413 |
N/A |
2,376 |
1985 |
20.7 |
12.8 |
43.6 |
N/A |
40.3 |
13,010 |
5,745 |
4,157 |
N/A |
2,606 |
1986 |
20.5 |
13.0 |
43.1 |
N/A |
37.7 |
12,876 |
5,789 |
4,148 |
N/A |
2,507 |
1987 |
20.3 |
11.8 |
45.1 |
23.5 |
39.3 |
12,843 |
5,230 |
4,385 |
455 |
2,670 |
1988 |
19.5 |
11.0 |
43.5 |
24.1 |
37.6 |
12,455 |
4,888 |
4,296 |
474 |
2,631 |
1989 |
19.6 |
11.5 |
43.7 |
19.8 |
36.2 |
12,590 |
5,110 |
4,375 |
392 |
2,603 |
1990 |
20.6 |
12.3 |
44.8 |
17.6 |
38.4 |
13,431 |
5,532 |
4,550 |
374 |
2,865 |
1991 |
21.8 |
13.1 |
45.9 |
17.5 |
40.4 |
14,341 |
5,918 |
4,755 |
360 |
3,094 |
1992 |
22.3 |
13.2 |
46.6 |
16.4 |
40.0 |
15,294 |
6,017 |
5,106 |
363 |
3,637 |
1993 |
22.7 |
13.6 |
46.1 |
18.2 |
40.9 |
15,727 |
6,255 |
5,125 |
375 |
3,873 |
1994 |
21.8 |
12.5 |
43.8 |
18.3 |
41.5 |
15,289 |
5,823 |
4,906 |
318 |
4,075 |
1995 |
20.8 |
11.2 |
41.9 |
19.5 |
40.0 |
14,665 |
5.115 |
4,761 |
564 |
4,080 |
1996 |
20.5 |
11.1 |
39.9 |
19.5 |
40.3 |
14,463 |
5,072 |
4,519 |
571 |
4,237 |
1997 |
19.9 |
11.4 |
37.2 |
20.3 |
36.8 |
14,113 |
5,204 |
4,225 |
628 |
3,972 |
|
% of children below the poverty level |
number of children below the poverty level |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
asian/ |
|
|
|
|
asian/ |
|
|
|
|
|
pacific |
|
|
|
|
pacific |
|
year |
all1 |
white2 |
black2 |
islander2 |
hispanic |
all1 |
white2 |
black2 |
islander2 |
hispanic |
1998 |
18.9 |
10.6 |
36.7 |
18.0 |
34.4 |
13,467 |
4,822 |
4,151 |
564 |
3,837 |
1999 |
16.9 |
9.4 |
33.2 |
11.9 |
30.3 |
12,280 |
4,155 |
3,813 |
381 |
3,693 |
2000 |
16.2 |
9.1 |
31.2 |
12.7 |
28.4 |
11,587 |
4,018 |
3,581 |
420 |
3,522 |
2001 |
16.3 |
9.5 |
30.2 |
11.5 |
28.0 |
11,733 |
4,194 |
3,492 |
369 |
3,570 |
2002 |
16.7 |
9.4 |
32.3 |
11.73 |
28.6 |
12,133 |
4,090 |
3,645 |
3153 |
3,782 |
2003 |
17.6 |
9.8 |
34.1 |
12.53 |
29.7 |
12,866 |
4,233 |
3,877 |
3443 |
4,077 |
2004 |
17.8 |
10.5 |
33.7 |
9.83 |
28.9 |
13,041 |
4,519 |
3,788 |
2813 |
4,098 |
2005 |
17.6 |
10.0 |
34.5 |
11.03 |
28.3 |
12,896 |
4,254 |
3,841 |
3173 |
4,143 |
2006 |
17.4 |
14.1 |
33.4 |
12.5 |
N/A |
12,827 |
7,908 |
3,777 |
391 |
N/A |
Child Care Arrangements in the US
This table is based on sample surveys of households with children three to five years old who were not yet in kindergarten. Day-care centers, Head Start programs, preschools, prekindergarten, and nursery schools were included as center-based programs. Detail may not add to total given because of rounding and because some children participated in more than one type of nonparental arrangement.
|
|
|
under |
under a |
under a |
in a |
|
children |
|
parental |
relative’s |
nonrelative’s |
center-based |
year of survey |
number |
(%) |
care (%) |
care (%) |
care (%) |
program (%) |
1999 |
8,525,000 |
100.0 |
23.1 |
22.8 |
16.1 |
59.7 |
20011 |
8,551,000 |
100.0 |
27.0 |
21.0 |
13.0 |
56.0 |
20051 |
9,066,000 |
100.0 |
27.0 |
29.0 |
15.0 |
78.0 |
feature |
details from the 2005 survey12 under under a children parental relative’s number (%) care (%) care (%) |
under a nonrelative’s care (%) |
in a center-based program (%) |
|||
total |
20,665,000 |
100.0 |
40.0 |
35.0 |
22.0 |
60.0 |
sex male female |
10,598,000 10,067,000 |
51.3 48.7 |
40.0 41.0 |
33.0 37.0 |
22.0 23.0 |
62.0 58.0 |
race/ethnic group white, non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic Hispanic other, non-Hispanic |
11,488,000 2,962,000 4,283,000 1,933,000 |
55.6 14.3 20.7 9.4 |
38.0 31.0 51.0 42.4 |
32.0 38.0 41.0 38.6 |
26.0 15.0 20.0 14.7 |
61.0 63.0 51.0 65.4 |
household income less than US$25,001 5,912,000 US$25,001-50,000 5,256,000 US$50,001-75,000 4,307,000 US$75,001-100,000 2,445,000 more than US$100,000 2,746,000 |
28.6 25.4 20.8 11.8 13.3 |
49.0 47.0 39.0 27.0 21.0 |
43.0 42.0 31.0 26.0 26.0 |
16.0 19.0 27.0 26.0 27.0 |
57.0 55.0 58.0 63.0 70.0 |
Children in the US Living with Nonparents
|
adoptions |
|
adoptions |
total foreign adoptions |
|||
top 10 countries |
fiscal year |
top 10 countries |
fiscal year |
|
fiscal year |
||
of origin |
2006 |
2007 |
of origin |
2006 |
2007 |
2002 |
20,099 |
1. China |
6,493 |
5,453 |
6. Vietnam |
163 |
828 |
2003 |
21,616 |
2. Guatemala |
4,135 |
4,728 |
7. Ukraine |
460 |
606 |
2004 |
22,884 |
3. Russia |
3,706 |
2,310 |
8. Kazakhstan |
587 |
540 |
2005 |
22,728 |
4. Ethiopia |
732 |
1,255 |
9. India |
320 |
416 |
2006 |
20,679 |
5. South Korea |
1,376 |
939 |
10. Liberia |
353 |
314 |
2007 |
19,613 |
US Nursing Home Population
The data in these tables were gathered through interviews conducted for the most recent National Nursing Home Survey (2004) and through the publication Health, United States, 2007. Only those residents who described themselves as being of one race are included. Data on residents under the age of 65 are not available. Detail may not add to total given because of rounding.
|
total |
|
gender (2004) |
|
|
|
age at interview |
residents |
% |
male |
% |
female |
% |
65-74 |
174,100 |
13.2 |
75,400 |
22.4 |
98,800 |
10.1 |
75-84 |
468,900 |
35.6 |
140,800 |
41.8 |
328,000 |
33.5 |
85 and older |
674,200 |
51.2 |
120,600 |
35.8 |
553,600 |
56.5 |
total |
1,317,200 |
100.0 |
336,800 |
100.0 |
980,400 |
100.0 |
|
|
race (2004) |
|
|
|
white |
% |
black |
% |
65-74 |
134,200 |
11.7 |
34,500 |
23.7 |
75-84 |
406,000 |
35.3 |
54,600 |
37.6 |
85 and older |
608,600 |
53.0 |
56,300 |
38.7 |
total |
1,148,800 |
100.0 |
145,400 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
resident location (1999) |
|
|
|
||
|
northwest |
% |
midwest |
% |
south |
% |
west |
% |
65-74 |
46,400 |
12.1 |
58,900 |
11.8 |
63,400 |
11.9 |
26,100 |
12.1 |
75-84 |
118,500 |
30.9 |
153,200 |
30.8 |
179,100 |
33.7 |
66,800 |
31.1 |
85 and older |
184,300 |
48.1 |
241,100 |
48.4 |
237,700 |
44.7 |
94,000 |
43.7 |
total |
383,400 |
100.0 |
498,200 |
100.0 |
531,500 |
100.0 |
215,200 |
100.0 |
resident location (2006) |
|||||
northeast total residents 336,000 |
% 23.4 |
midwest % south 416,800 29.1 485,200 |
% 33.8 |
west 195,600 |
% 13.6 |
Unmarried-Couple Households in the US
Data based on Current Population Survey or American Community Survey except for census years of 1960 and 1970. 2005 data shown separately. Numbers in thousands (’000). Source: US Census Bureau.
|
|
unmarried- |
|
|
|
|
|
couple |
|
no |
with |
|
total us |
households |
% of total |
children |
children |
year |
households |
(opposite sex) |
households |
under 15 |
under 15 |
1960 census |
52,799 |
439 |
0.8 |
242 |
197 |
1970 census |
63,401 |
523 |
0.8 |
327 |
196 |
1980 |
80,776 |
1,589 |
2.0 |
1,159 |
431 |
1985 |
86,789 |
1,983 |
2.3 |
1,380 |
603 |
1990 |
93,347 |
2,856 |
3.1 |
1,966 |
891 |
1995 |
98,990 |
3,668 |
3.7 |
2,349 |
1,319 |
2000 |
104,705 |
4,736 |
4.5 |
3,061 |
1,675 |
unmarried-couple households |
2005 |
|
|
|
|
male householder/female partner |
2,660 |
|
|
|
|
male householder/male partner |
413 |
|
|
|
|
female householder/female partner |
364 |
|
|
|
|
female householder/male partner |
2,529 |
|
|
|
|
unmarried-couple households |
5,966 |
|
|
|
|
total households |
|
111,091 |
|
|
|
The data in this table are taken from surveys of individuals 18 or over conducted by the US Census Bureau and exclude members of the armed forces except those living off post or with their families on post. Data exclude Alaska and Hawaii prior to 1960. Detail may not add to total given because of rounding.
|
|
1950 |
1960 |
1970 |
total 1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2006 |
Total individuals surveyed in |
111.7 |
125.5 |
132.5 |
159.5 |
181.8 |
201.8 |
219.7 |
|
hundred thousands (’000,000) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percentage |
of individuals never married |
22.8 |
22.0 |
16.2 |
20.3 |
22.2 |
23.9 |
25.2 |
Percentage |
of individuals married |
67.0 |
67.3 |
71.7 |
65.5 |
61.9 |
59.5 |
58.1 |
Percentage |
of individuals widowed |
8.3 |
8.4 |
8.9 |
8.0 |
7.6 |
6.8 |
6.3 |
Percentage |
of individuals divorced |
1.9 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
6.2 |
8.3 |
9.8 |
10.4 |
Percentage |
of males never married |
26.2 |
25.3 |
18.9 |
23.8 |
25.8 |
27.0 |
28.6 |
Percentage |
of males married |
68.0 |
69.1 |
75.3 |
68.4 |
64.3 |
61.5 |
59.9 |
Percentage |
of males widowed |
4.2 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
Percentage |
of males divorced |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.5 |
5.2 |
7.2 |
8.8 |
9.1 |
Percentage |
of females never married |
11.1 |
12.3 |
13.7 |
17.1 |
18.9 |
21.1 |
22.0 |
Percentage |
of females married |
37.6 |
42.6 |
68.5 |
63.0 |
59.7 |
57.6 |
56.5 |
Percentage |
of females widowed |
7.0 |
8.3 |
13.9 |
12.8 |
12.1 |
10.5 |
9.9 |
Percentage |
of females divorced |
1.2 |
1.7 |
3.9 |
7.1 |
9.3 |
10.8 |
11.6 |
United States Education
Percentage who had graduated from high school1
|
all |
races2 |
|
white |
|
black |
hispanic3 |
asian/pacific islander |
||
census |
male |
female |
male |
female |
male |
female |
male |
female |
male |
female |
1960 |
39.5 |
42.5 |
41.6 |
44.7 |
18.2 |
21.8 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
1970 |
51.9 |
52.8 |
54.0 |
55.0 |
30.1 |
32.5 |
37.9 |
34.2 |
N/A |
N/A |
1980 |
67.3 |
65.8 |
69.6 |
68.1 |
50.8 |
51.5 |
67.3 |
65.8 |
N/A |
N/A |
1990 |
77.7 |
77.5 |
79.1 |
79.0 |
65.8 |
66.5 |
50.3 |
51.3 |
84.0 |
77.2 |
2000 |
84.2 |
84.0 |
84.8 |
85.0 |
78.7 |
78.3 |
56.6 |
57.5 |
88.2 |
83.4 |
2006 |
85.0 |
85.9 |
85.5 |
86.7 |
80.1 |
81.2 |
58.5 |
60.1 |
89.6 |
85.5 |
|
|
|
Percentage who |
had graduated from |
college4 |
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
asian/pacific |
|
|
all |
races2 |
|
white |
|
black |
hispanic3 |
islander |
||
census |
male |
female |
male |
female |
male |
female |
male |
female |
male |
female |
1960 |
9.7 |
5.8 |
10.3 |
6.0 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
1970 |
13.5 |
8.1 |
14.4 |
8.4 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
7.8 |
4.3 |
N/A |
N/A |
1980 |
20.1 |
12.8 |
21.3 |
13.3 |
8.4 |
8.3 |
9.4 |
6.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
1990 |
24.4 |
18.4 |
25.3 |
19.0 |
11.9 |
10.8 |
9.8 |
8.7 |
44.9 |
35.4 |
2000 |
27.8 |
23.6 |
28.5 |
23.9 |
16.3 |
16.7 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
47.6 |
40.7 |
2006 |
29.2 |
26.9 |
29.7 |
27.1 |
17.2 |
19.4 |
11.9 |
12.9 |
52.5 |
47.1 |
N/A means not available. 1Through 1990, finished four years or more of high school. 2Includes races not shown separately in the table. 3Hispanics may be of any race. 4Through 1990, finished four years or more of college.
The original color of the us president’s residence was the pale grey of the sandstone from which it was built, but it was called the “White House” as early as 1809 because the light sandstone contrasted sharply with the red brick of nearby buildings. It was not until 1902, however, that the building was officially renamed the “White House” by Pres. Theodore Roosevelt.
National Spelling Bee
A spelling bee is a contest or game in which players attempt to spell correctly and aloud words assigned them by an impartial judge. Competition may be individual, with players eliminated when they misspell a word and the last remaining player being the winner, or between teams, the winner being the team with the most players remaining at the close of the contest. The spelling bee is an old custom that was revived in schools in the United States in the late 19th century and enjoyed a great vogue there and in Great Britain. In the US, local, regional, and national competitions continue to be held annually. The US National Spelling Bee was begun by the Louisville Courier-Journal newspaper in 1925, and it was taken over by Scripps Howard, Inc., in 1941. To qualify, spellers must meet nine requirements, including that they have neither reached their 16th birthday nor passed beyond the eighth grade.
year |
champion |
winning word |
year champion |
winning word |
1925 |
Frank Neuhauser |
gladiolus |
1967 Jennifer Reinke |
chihuahua |
1926 |
Pauline Bell |
cerise |
1968 Robert L. Walters |
abalone |
1927 |
Dean Lucas |
luxuriance |
1969 Susan Yoachum |
interlocutory |
1928 |
Betty Robinson |
albumen |
1970 Libby Childress |
croissant |
1929 |
Virginia Hogan |
asceticism |
1971 Jonathan Knisely |
shalloon |
1930 |
Helen Jensen |
fracas |
1972 Robin Kral |
macerate |
1931 |
Ward Randall |
foulard |
1973 Barrie Trinkle |
vouchsafe |
1932 |
Dorothy Greenwald |
knack |
1974 Julie Ann Junkin |
hydrophyte |
1933 |
Alma Roach |
torsion |
1975 Hugh Tosteson |
incisor |
1934 |
Sarah Wilson |
deteriorating |
1976 Tim Kneale |
narcolepsy |
1935 |
Clara Mohler |
intelligible |
1977 John Paola |
cambist |
1936 |
Jean Trowbridge |
interning |
1978 Peg McCarthy |
deification |
1937 |
Waneeta Beckley |
promiscuous |
1979 Katie Kerwin |
maculature |
1938 |
Marian Richardson |
sanitarium |
1980 Jacques Bailly |
elucubrate |
1939 |
Elizabeth Ann Rice |
canonical |
1981 Paige Pipkin |
sarcophagus |
1940 |
Laurel Kuykendall |
therapy |
1982 Molly Dieveney |
psoriasis |
1941 |
Louis Edward Sissman |
initials |
1983 Blake Giddens |
Purim |
1942 |
Richard Earnhart |
sacrilegious |
1984 Daniel Greenblatt |
luge |
1943- |
45 |
not held |
1985 Balu Natarajan |
milieu |
1946 |
John McKinney |
semaphore |
1986 Jon Pennington |
odontalgia |
1947 |
Mattie Lou Pollard |
chlorophyll |
1987 Stephanie Petit |
staphylococci |
1948 |
Jean Chappelear |
psychiatry |
1988 Rageshree Ramachandran |
elegiacal |
1949 |
Kim Calvin |
dulcimer |
1989 Scott Isaacs |
spoliator |
1950 |
Diana Reynard; |
meticulosity |
1990 Amy Marie Dimak |
fibranne |
|
Colquitt Dean (tied) |
|
1991 Joanne Lagatta |
antipyretic |
1951 |
Irving Belz |
insouciant |
1992 Amanda Goad |
lyceum |
1952 |
Doris Ann Hall |
vignette |
1993 Geoff Hooper |
kamikaze |
1953 |
Elizabeth Hess |
soubrette |
1994 Ned G. Andrews |
antediluvian |
1954 |
William Cashore |
transept |
1995 Justin Tyler Carroll |
xanthosis |
1955 |
Sandra Sloss |
crustaceology |
1996 Wendy Guey |
vivisepulture |
1956 |
Melody Sachko |
condominium |
1997 Rebecca Sealfon |
euonym |
1957 |
Sandra Owen; |
|
1998 Jody-Anne Maxwell |
chiaroscurist |
|
Dana Bennett (tied) |
schappe |
1999 Nupur Lala |
logorrhea |
1958 |
Jolitta Schlehuber |
syllepsis |
2000 George Abraham Thampy |
demarche |
1959 |
Joel Montgomery |
catamaran |
2001 Sean Conley |
succedaneum |
1960 |
Henry Feldman |
eudaemonic |
2002 Pratyush Buddiga |
prospicience |
1961 |
John Capehart |
saragdine |
2003 Sai R. Gunturi |
pococurante |
1962 |
Nettie Crawford; |
|
2004 David Tidmarsh |
autochthonous |
|
Michael Day (tied) |
esquamulose |
2005 Anurag Kashyap |
appoggiatura |
1963 |
Glen Van Slyke III |
equipage |
2006 Kerry Close |
Ursprache |
1964 |
William Kerek |
sycophant |
2007 Evan M. O’Dorney |
serrefine |
1965 |
Michael Kerpan, Jr. |
eczema |
2008 Sameer Mishra |
guerdon |
1966 |
Robert A. Wake |
ratoon |
|
|
In the waning minutes of his only TV debate with Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter in 1980, Ronald Reagan looked straight into the camera and asked, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” It was a defining question of the campaign—and of late 20th-century American politics. It was also pretty easy to answer. The “misery index,” a then-popular measure that added the unemployment rate to the inflation rate, had skyrocketed during Carter’s tenure. Taxes had risen sharply. There were other issues on voters’ minds, like the Iranian hostage crisis and those dang cardigans Carter used to wear. But the economy was crucial to Reagan’s victory. After taking office, he responded by ushering in a new era in economic policy—cutting tax rates, slashing regulation, and tirelessly preaching the gospel that individual Americans were better suited to make economic decisions than bureaucrats in Washington were.
This election year, the economy has again been at the forefront of voters’ minds.
The misery index is no longer the problem; at 9% and change at midyear, it was miles below the 20% of late 1980. But Americans have a new menu of economic woes—among them a real-estate crash, a credit crisis, a broken health care system, and nagging job insecurity. Poll after poll show a vast majority convinced that the economy and the country are headed in the wrong direction. And that is a problem for the Republican Party: history shows that slow economic growth is among the best predictors of a change in party control of the White House—and in 2008 the economy has barely grown at all.
The bigger issue for voters to wrestle with, though, is not what the economy can do to the presidential race but what the next president can do to the economy. Usually it’s not so much. But every once in a while, like when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected in 1932 and Reagan in 1980, the effect can be dramatic. Reagan’s policies, together with some luck and the inflation-killing zeal of Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Vol-cker, helped the US economy break out of its 1970s malaise into a new era of flexibility, innovation, and growth. Subsequent presidents, even Democrat Bill Clinton, followed more or less in Reagan’s footsteps.
Economic eras don’t last forever, though, and there are signs that the current slowdown is a harbinger of something bigger: an end to America’s 25-year love affair with tax cuts and deregulation. A lot of the cracks that have emerged during that time have become impossible to ignore—stagnant incomes, a federal budget gone way out of balance, soaring energy prices, a once-in-a-lifetime housing crash, and growing financial risks in retirement and from health care.
What it adds up to is a generalized sense of economic insecurity that has dimmed many Americans’ optimism about their future. So there’s a chance that the 2008 election could turn out to be a major economic turning point, just like 1980′s was. Economic trouble begets economic change. Here’s what may be in the offing.
America Needs a Raise. If you feel as if you’ve been going backward, you haven’t been imagining it. According to the US Census Bureau, the median American family made US$58,407 in 2006. That’s US$991 less, when you adjust for inflation, than the median in 2000, and indications are that things haven’t gotten any better in 2007 or this year.
Recessions—like the one in 2001 and the one we might be in now—always reduce incomes. The problem since 2000 is that even when the economy was growing, the fruits of that growth landed almost exclusively in the pockets of the wealthiest Americans. According to economists Thomas Piketty and Emanuel Saez, 75% of all income gains from 2002 to 2006 went to the top 1%—households making more than US$382,600 a year.
The gap between high and low earners has been growing since the late 1970s, and until recently, economists attributed virtually all of it to technological and demographic changes that increased the premium paid to those with advanced skills and education. If that were true, the only answer would lie along the arduous path of improving the education and skill levels of American workers. And you certainly wouldn’t want to discourage people from getting an education by heavily taxing the rewards for it.
But according to Piketty and Saez, the really dramatic gains have all been at the very, very top—not the top 1% but the top 0.01%, who now control 5.46% of all income, their highest share on record. (The data go back to 1913.) Most of these people are well educated, but it’s awfully hard to portray their riches purely as rewards for education or skill.
Many economists now believe at least two other factors have contributed to the growth in inequality: globalization and Reagan’s big cuts in taxes on the rich. Even as it rewards those at the top of their fields worldwide with spectacular paydays, globalization holds down earnings for millions of Americans who compete with workers overseas—not only lower-skilled factory and phone-center workers but also engineers, lawyers, and doctors. Public opinion has reacted to this with increasing distrust of free trade, a wariness that has been evident during the election campaign. But this is touchy territory: trade may distort the income distribution, but economists remain almost unanimous in warning that restricting trade would slow overall growth.
To the extent they talk about it at all, the two parties take different approaches to closing the income gap. Democrat Barack Obama in particular is explicit about wanting to shift more of the income-tax burden away from the middle class and onto those making more than US$200,000 a year, while Republican John McCain speaks mainly about creating better job-retraining programs for those displaced by globalization. Another potential path, though it hasn’t been a major theme in the campaign as of late summer, would be a big effort to repair the country’s crumbling infrastructure—which would create lots of jobs that couldn’t be outsourced overseas and would also deliver long-term economic benefits. In any case, the income gap is an issue that’s been danced around for too long. It’s time to address it.