INTERNATIONAL POLICY IS complex because of the necessity to consider the needs of each sovereign nation against economies, global environmental impact, and contributions to human-induced climate change. Much of the work toward international cooperation is done through the United Nations (an international organization with nearly all countries as members). The United Nations facilitates discussion and commitment, though it has limited authority or power. Members agree that something most be done about climate change and the environment; however, getting member nations to agree on solutions is harder. Conflicts and disagreements usually include protection of national interests by not turning authority over to the United Nations, wording of agreements that appears to not protect the interest of private industry or national interest, and economic differences between developing and developed countries.
CURRENT INTERNATIONAL POLICY
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) was formed in 1972 with the specific purpose of encouraging collaboration on conservation and development. In 1977, the international community adopted a Plan of Action to Combat Desertification due to impacts on economy, society, and environment. In 1991, the UNEP concluded that even with some successes, land degradation due to desertification had increased, and at a 1992 conference proposed sustainable development and for the UN General Assembly to establish an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INCD) to prepare a Convention to Combat Desertification, which was adopted in 1994, with entry into force on December 26, 1996. Over 179 countries were parties to the convention as of March 2002.
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer was agreed on September 16, 1987, and entered into force on January 1, 1989, and has been ratified by 191 countries. In meetings for the Montreal Protocol, the parties established adjustments and reductions of production and consumption of the controlled substances.
At the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development, member nations agreed to work together to formulate solutions. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) was adopted at the conference for commitments to maintaining ecology balanced with economic development, though the United States disagreed with some document wording as not protecting biotechnology firms.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988 by partnership with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UN Environment Programme to assess the risk of human-induced climate change, possible impacts of climate change, and provide options to deal with climate change. The First IPCC Assessment Report completed in 1990 provided the impetus for the formation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by the UN General Assembly.
The UNFCCC is an international treaty joined by most countries and adopted in 1992, and entering into force in 1994. The UNFCCC provides the overall policy framework for addressing climate change and for coping with the impacts from inevitable temperature increases. From initial discussions, the idea came about of incorporating policy-based commitments into the international climate negotiations. The variety of options considered by the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee was a system incorporating national assessment, along with implementation strategies and programs for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by considering their country’s needs and responsibilities within the scope of international, regional, and local circumstances to determine what agenda items would be a priority and for the setting of objectives.
Developed countries committed under the initial negotiations to take the majority of responsibility for creating policy and actions to mitigate climate change and limit/reduce their output of emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000. In debating further commitments, the participants discussed a variety of options, including policies and measures, as well as quantified emission targets. The 1995 Berlin Mandate, under negotiation, requested more significant quantification of emissions and stricter policy to enforce reduction objectives in a certain period of time. The various participants presented and supported policy approaches including across-the-board standards and taxation as well as options to choose from. Some proposals blended mandatory strict policy standards and taxation, along with a variety of options for reaching those goals.
Proposals from the European Union, the primary proponent of common and coordinated policy, listed specific actions including mandatory commitments, highly recommended commitments, and voluntary commitments. The United States and other participants favored target-based approaches to allow countries complete autonomy in choosing policies and measures.
By the late 1990s, working in voluntary partnerships was leading to reductions in conflict among stakeholders, new ideas on sustainable economic development and poverty alleviation, new thinking about the relationship between conservation areas and the communities in and around them, and more focused application of existing resources. An addition to the UNFCCC treaty is the Kyoto Protocol, drafted in 1997 by 160 nations, calling for the 38 industrialized countries releasing the most greenhouse gases to cut their emissions to levels five percent of 1990 levels by 2012 to achieve a worldwide reduction of greenhouse gases.
THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on February16, 2005, and is legally binding on countries that ratify the agreement. In initial negotiations, the United States voluntarily accepted a more ambitious target, promising to reduce emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels; the European Union, which had wanted a much tougher treaty, committed to 8 percent; and Japan, to 6 percent. Since the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, 175 parties have ratified it. The protocol sketched out the basic features of its mechanisms and compliance system, for example, but did not explain the all-important rules of how they would operate. The United States has not ratified the agreement because of wording and exclusions of developing countries from emissions reduction.
Though the United States has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the government has established a comprehensive policy to slow the growth of emissions with voluntary and incentive-based programs, strengthen institutional advancement of climate technologies and climate science, and enhance international cooperation. In February 2002, the U.S. government announced a comprehensive strategy to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent 2002-12, preventing the release of more than 100 million metric tons of carbon-equivalent emissions to the atmosphere (annually) by 2012 and more than 500 million metric tons (cumulatively) 2002-12.
A core challenge in addressing global climate change is arriving at multilateral arrangements ensuring adequate effort by all major economies to moderate and reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Thus far, the multilateral effort has relied most heavily on a particular form of commitment-economy-wide emission targets. Developed countries agreed to voluntary targets under the UNFCCC, and most later agreed to binding targets under the Kyoto Protocol. Most developing countries, however, view quantified emission limits as a potential cap on their growth and are unlikely to accept binding targets in a post-2012 climate agreement.
At the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, The Hyogo Framework for action signed in January 2005 by 168 countries details steps to reduce the impact of natural hazards on populations. It assesses disaster capabilities and needs and incorporates risk reduction strategies and adaptations associated with existing climate variability and future climate change, including risks from geological hazards such as earthquakes and landslides. The result has been 40 countries adjusting national policies to give priority to disaster risk reduction.
The mission of the Millennium Development Goals is to alleviate poverty by integrating sustainable development into national policies and prevent the loss of natural resources. These goals allow countries to determine their own priorities. One way this is being done is with the creation of model forests to show how sustainability practices can have a positive impact on human life and to reverse environmental degradation with conservation and reforestation.
FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY
Some international policies retain support over the long term, like the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and the Convention to Combat Desertification. The reduction in greenhouse gas emissions measures agreed to in the Kyoto Protocol end in 2012.
In determining future policy, the success of the target-based approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and its enforceability must be examined. The commitment is based on outcome, and coupled with emissions trading, provides economic benefits as well as freedom to apply reduction strategies in the most cost-effective manner. This works for industrialized nations, with already established economies. Developing countries may not accept imposed limits on emissions, because those same limits may limit the potential for growth. Developing countries already have multiple concerns to improve first, including environmental issues like water quality, air quality, poverty, and health issues like access to sanitation, nutritious food, and health services.
Ongoing negotiation and commitment will be needed to continue international cooperation on climate change policy. As discussed at the Climate Dialogue at Pocantico, flexibility seems to be the most important factor in gaining support by perhaps allowing countries to develop national policies in developing countries to reduce emissions on a more individual basis, instead of being limited to strict limits set by an economy-wide emission limit. Within this framework, nations would need to establish quantifiable measurements of emission impacts.
Since the Kyoto Protocol applied emission reduction levels to industrialized nations, gaining agreement to emission standards from developing countries may require some incentive-based policies. Researchers have made a variety of proposals, including the trading of carbon/emission credits as long as emissions can be quantified, control of conventional air pollutants, or improvement of agricultural productivity. Taking measures for limiting the extent of global warming from the greenhouse effect includes preventive measures (reducing emissions, enhancing carbon sequestration) and adaptive measures (construction to protect against the effects of climate change, improving water resources, and improving cultivation practices, or shifting crops to match the plants’ ideal weather conditions for maximum production).
Also to be considered is a shift to previously underutilized or unused commodities like carbon taxes on all fossil fuels, such as gas, oil, coal, and the electricity generated from these sources. These taxes would shift the burden of emissions reduction to the consumer by inflating the price of using carbon-based energy and making the use of energy conservation measures and alternative resources more attractive and cost-effective, as well as increasing the demand for alternative sources. The trading of carbon credits (with each nation allocated a certain permissible level of carbon emissions and the ability to sell leftover allocations to nations who have exceeded their allocation limits), subsidizing non-carbon-based fuel providers instead of fossil fuel providers, and research and development expenditures promoting the commercialization of alternative technologies and promoting the transfer of technology to developing nations could also help.
Any measures taken to prevent global climate change will have economic effects, both positive and negative, on the economy, including production, employment, and investment. Continued scientific research on climate and atmosphere, as well as environmental education and continued voluntary dialogue between countries on the future of global environment and economic policies, can help lead to action and global policy development to overcome the limitations of determining economic policies.
Policy must also take into account the damages caused by the impacts of climate change. While climate models vary on temperature increase for each region, depending on the already present climate, potential risks include rising sea levels causing flooding, loss of coastal wetlands, beach erosion, saltwater contamination of drinking water, and damage/decreasing stability of low-lying property and infrastructure; possible increase in frequency and intensity of storms make flooding a possibility in many areas made worse by difficult drainage and causing other damage. Flooding and runoff could contaminate water supplies (with eroded soils and agricultural chemicals containing high concentrations of nitrates, pesticides, and soil nutrients); other damages could include decreased water supplies, population (both human and animal) displacement, changes in agriculture (with benefit to colder climates and loss to warmer climates), forest loss with persistent drought, and loss of trees unsuited to higher temperatures.
Changes within established ecosystems would affect wildlife, including breeding grounds of waterfowl and migratory birds. Human health risks include contracting certain infectious diseases from water contamination or disease-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and rodents. Warmer temperatures would increase the incidence of heat-related illnesses and lead to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone pollution, causing respiratory illnesses (diminished lung function, asthma, and respiratory inflammation). In addition, psychological factors related to higher stress could be prevalent. All of these potential impacts will also have an impact on the economy, and policy, international, national, or local, must take these possibilities into account, as some areas are more vulnerable than others; those with high emissions may not be the ones who suffer from the consequences.
Groundwork for emissions crediting is being demonstrated through the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. The projects already approved could generate 870 million tons of emission credits with the current estimated value of between $6 and $9 billion. This monetary value makes carbon crediting a viable source of income, especially for developing countries and those with carbon sequestration in forests and agricultural areas. This type of market enterprise would require independent verification. The limitation to this program might be creating disincentives for industrialized nations to reduce emissions with the option to purchase carbon credits or to not agree to the program at all if they will not be able to benefit from the income produced.
The quantification of standards thus far has been based on present levels and emissions assessments. For developing countries that have not had access to the vast amounts of energy used by industrialized nations, the strategy is not reduction of emissions, but limiting emissions to standards for consumption of energy against the development of renewable energy and improved social structures. The effectiveness of a policy is only as good as the results; other variables may be in action instead of just the policy.
As environmental awareness grows and more individuals choose climate-preserving strategies, those will have a cumulative effect on emissions. Options for telecommuting reduce driving, an economic downturn affects production, and service industries consume less energy than industrial production. Improved agricultural practices remove carbon from the air. In some cases, the effectiveness of the emissions reduction policy will be difficult to determine. The most vital part of international policy is raising awareness of the environment and what can be done to combat climate change and the effects of climate change.
