THE CENTER FOR Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) at Florida State University (FSU) carries out research in air-sea interaction, ocean and coupled air-sea modeling, climate prediction, statistical studies, and predictions of social/economic consequences of ocean-atmospheric variations. Students in COAPS come from a wide variety of departments including meteorology, mathematics, computer science, and physical oceanography. COAPS is funded by several federal agencies, producing original published papers that advance our understanding of the ocean and the atmosphere and their role in shaping the Earth’s climate. It has over 50 people working on research grants totaling more than $3 per year. COAPS faculty are members of the meteorology and oceanography departments. It has graduate students as well as undergraduate research scholars.
COAPS’s areas of research are quite broad. It places a particular emphasis on research to improve hurricane storm surge predictions in the Gulf of Mexico and to develop an understanding of the regional distributions of hurricane activity in the United States. This aspect is of particular importance to Florida and coastal residents. Among other topics, COAPS research includes understanding oceanographic measurements obtained from satellites for sea-surface winds, sea-surface shape, and ocean color. It also encompasses climate forecasting for farmers in Florida, Georgia, and Alabama using coupled atmosphere-ocean global and regional models.
Weather and crop reports are offered to Florida, Georgia, and Alabama farmers through the Florida Climate Center. In addition, COAPS has created AgClimate, an interactive website with climate, agriculture, and forestry information, to assist farmers to manage their crops for maximum outcome. AgClimate uses crop simulation models along with historic and forecast climate data so farmers can compare probable outcomes under different climate conditions. AgClimate tools are aimed at providing farmers with opportunities for adaptating to seasonal climate forecasts so as to limit the production risks caused by climate variability. Tools provide information for specific counties as well as regional overviews.
The research on air/sea interaction focuses on the transfer of energy from the atmosphere to the ocean. Areas of interest cover theoretical modeling, analysis of in situ observations, satellite-based observations, flux coupling for ocean and atmospheric models, and analysis of spatial/temporal variability in surface turbulent fluxes. The In-Situ Fluxes Project at FSU aims to provide better products for marine surface variability. In particular, it addresses the transfer of energy between the ocean and the atmosphere, as well as variables related to this problem (wind speed, wind vectors, sea-surface temperature, air temperature, humidity, surface pressure, and wave characteristics).
FSU In-Situ Fluxes produces monthly averages, based solely on in situ observations (ships and buoys). The FSU Satellite Fluxes largely rely on satellite observations that offer finer resolution in space and time. The project provides a new set of ocean surface forcing fields to understand the global climate system and favor climate prediction. The long-term monthly fields are suitable for seasonal to decadal studies, and the related hybrid satellite and numerical weather prediction (NWP) fields can be employed for daily-to-annual variability and quality assessment.
COAPS is carrying out research on climate change with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Together the two centers are building a new version of the Community Climate System model (CCSM), using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) as the oceanic model. The CCSM is one of the most respected models in the climate research community. In this project, the CCSM is not employed with the conventional depth vertical coordinate, but with an oceanic model that uses hybrid vertical coordinates. Comparisons will be performed between the new CCSM/HYCOM and the standard (CCSM/POP) version. After the validation of the new coupled model, decadal to centennial time scale experiments will be conducted to study climate change (decades to centuries) and climate variability (seasonal to inter-annual). These experiments will include Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) integrations as well as investigations of the response and feedback of the ocean to external climate forcing.
COAPS recognizes the Earth’s climate as a dynamic system with regional and local variations. It studies climate variability by looking at variations in daily maximum and minimum temperatures across the United States. Researchers examine the trends in temperature at both automated national weather service sites and cooperative observing stations. COAPS also works on the dynamical forecasting/hindcasting of Northern Hemisphere tropical Atlantic basin hurricane activity. To address hurricane prediction, it employs the FSU/ COAPS climate global atmospheric model (T126L27) and the FSU/COAPS atmospheric model coupled to the newly-developed Max Planck global ocean model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates.
In this same area, COAPS examines crop yields as determined by a dynamical downscaled atmospheric model. Climate variability has been shown to be a significant factor in agricultural crops. The seasonal climate shifts due to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase in the southeastern United States significantly influence corn, wheat, cotton, tomato, rice, and hay production. COAPS uses the FSU/COAPS global and regional models in hindcasting/forecasting crop yields over the southeastern United States. Finally, COAPS compares statistically-downscaled climate data and data generated by dynamical models. The global and regional models used for these studies are all dynamical COAPS is comparing studies using statistical down-scaling techniques against dynamical methods. COAPS research has pointed out that the advantage of statistical methods is that they are relatively inexpensive computationally and can be performed at any spatial resolution. Seasonal characteristics and higher moment statistics are some of the comparisons being carried out.
OCEAN MODELING
Ocean-modeling activities at COAPS include model development, research, and graduate instruction. COAPS uses models ofvarious complexity, architecture, and horizontal and vertical coordinate representation as the principal tools. Models employed at COAPS vary from very high-resolution regional models to basin-scale and global models. The models currently used at COAPS are: Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM); Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM); Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM); Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) (regional/coastal); HYCOM (basin-scale); Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (HOPE); HYCOM (global). Model experiments are routinely run on the local COAPS computers as well as at various supercomputer centers (FSU, Naval Oceanographic Office [NAVOCEANO], National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR]).
Modeling studies address a wide range of topics from exploring physical processes in the deep and upper ocean to improving ocean forecasting. Coupling of the ocean models with different atmospheric/flux models gives researchers the chance to study air-sea interaction at a wide variety of time scales. For example, regional models coupled to the BVW atmospheric heat flux model are used to simulate more realistic analyses of the air-sea interaction and ocean response during hurricanes. The global models are coupled to either the COAPS/FSU global atmospheric model or to the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) within the CCSM. These coupled models are used to investigate climate variability or climate change.
High-resolution numerical models are used at COAPS to study the physical environment of the Gulf of Mexico, which has long been an area of expertise. Researchers have explained why the actual height of the storm surge generated by Hurricane Dennis on the North Florida Coast was 8-10 ft. instead of the predicted 3-5 ft. The result of the project pointed out that, although Dennis had only modest winds off West Florida, these winds drove water on shore which morphed into a barotropic shelf wave that propagated to St. Marks, Florida, nearly doubling the surge caused by local winds. This research had important consequences as it led the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to modify storm surge forecasting methods in the Gulf of Mexico, by including larger model domains to account for remotely-generated sea level anomalies.
For their study on the Gulf of Mexico, researchers at COAPS use two models. NCOM developed at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRC), is a three-dimensional primitive equation ocean model that has been optimized for running on supercomputers. The NCOM representations serve as a virtual laboratory for studying the physics of the ocean circulation within the Gulf of Mexico. Projects encompass studies of the Loop Current and its eddies within the deep ocean, the circulation on the continental shelves near the coast, the interaction of eddies with the waters of the continental shelves, and the impacts of river discharge on the ocean environment. Additionally, the model is used to advance the understanding of numerical methods, ocean prediction systems, and air-sea interaction.
The second configuration is based the HYCOM, which operates in near real time by the NRL at Sten-nis Space Center. More specifically, the goal is to further develop this configuration within the framework of the Northern Gulf Institute into a coupled ocean-atmosphere-biogeochemical modeling system. This modeling configuration will include: forcing from a high resolution regional atmospheric model, a wave model to improve the flux computations, real-time river discharge, tidal forcing, and a complex biogeo-chemical model. COAPS is developing a very high-resolution regional model of the northeastern Gulf and will become part of this Gulf of Mexico HYCOM modeling system.
COAPS works in the field of physical oceanography and ocean prediction within the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE), which provides a framework for attempts to combine numerical models and observations via data assimilation to provide ocean prediction products on various spatial and time scales. GODAE supplies a global system of observations, communications, modeling, and assimilation that will deliver regular, comprehensive information on the state of the oceans. COAPS believes that studies in physical oceanography and ocean prediction will result, not only in increased knowledge of the marine environment and ocean climate, but also in improved predictive opportunities that will benefit commercial and industrial sectors of society. The development of this ocean prediction capability will allow a better scientific understanding of ocean physical processes and their influences on marine ecosystems. COAPS works within a large partnership of institutions to develop the performance and application of eddy-resolving, real-time global and basin-scale ocean prediction systems using HYCOM. This partnership is sponsored by the U.S. component of GODAE.
RISK ASSESSMENT
COAPS has a special area of research in risk assessment in the categories of storm surge, freeze forecasting, and fire weather. COAPS is developing new methods to predict the amount of storm surge that will hit the Gulf Coast during a storm that can be very destructive for coastal property. COAPS has played a central role in the research of climate variability related to the ENSO.
The center is involved in the Southeast Climate Consortium and has developed variability and forecast tools applicable to agricultural interests in the southeastern United States. These tools are centered on shifts in the traditional climate variables (monthly averaged temperature and precipitation), but also on extreme events such as droughts, severe weather, hurricanes, and damaging freezes. Through an examination of historical freeze events in central and south Florida, COAPS has revealed a strong connection between ENSO and the occurrence of damaging freezes. Specifically, the severe or damaging freezes tend to occur during the neutral ENSO phase and are much less likely during El Nino or La Nina.
Based on the analysis of more than 50 years of historical weather observations, COAPS makes available a probabilistic freeze forecast for the winter season which is released every fall, based on the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The forecast is widely disseminated; it is available online on agclimate.org, is published in agricultural newsletters and publications, and is also presented at winter weather workshops throughout the state. Going to the opposite extreme, COAPS has cooperated with the Florida Division of
Forestry in research projects to identify the connection between ENSO and wildfire burn acreage in Florida. As an extension and continuation of that research, COAPS, funded by the Florida Division of Forestry and the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, has developed a prototype wildfire risk forecast system for Florida and the Southeast.
COAPS is also active in satellite studies of the ocean and atmospheric variability. It uses weather radar observations and scatter meters, which estimate near-surface wind speed and direction, as well as surface stress. COAPS also employs a wide variety of instruments to measure wind speed and sea surface temperature.
