Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
rain-OJF
rain-JJA
temp-year
~
r
00[i]
.~200llJ .~150[i]
~ ~
~
~ 100
~
E 100
E 100
E
@
~
~
~ ~
o
ZZ:o
Z:o
Z:o
flIJ
flIJ
-100
0
100
-100
0
100
0
5
10
%
change from
1965
%
change from
1965
Temp. C
U)
200
iii
c
:J
0
~
~
~
100
c
:0
tv
E 100
E 100
E
.u;
.u;
.c
:;
~
50
'0
'0
0
en
z:
0
Z
0
Z
0
~
r::[l]
i 200[IJ i 200[[]
0
50
-50
0
50
0
5
10
% change from
1965
%
change from
1965
Temp. C
:: E E 100 E 100
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
000
Z:
o
Z
o
Z
o
-200
0
200
-100
0
100
0
5
10
%
change from
1965
%
change from
1965
Temp.
C
Figure 2.2
Projected changes in precipitation for summer and winter and annual mean
temperature for northern Australia, southern Australia and south-western
Australia
Notes
a Precipitation (pr); summer (DJF); winter (JJA); temperature (tas); northern Australia
(nau); southern Australia (sau); south-western Australia (swa).
b Figure using all members of a perturbed-physics ensemble of simulations that reach
1
4°C GW by 2100.
Australia and south-west Western Australia (
Figure 2.2
)
shows broadly similar
projected warming. The reduced warming in the southern region would arise
due to the large ocean area included in the regional average. These projected
warmings can be compared to observed warming over Australia of around 0.9°C
since 1910 (Fawcett et al., 2012).
Projected regional warming is very large compared to natural decade-to-
decade variability of the climate, meaning that by mid century most or all years
are warmer than the average of the 20th century.
Figure 2.3a
shows the time
series of observed temperature over Central Victoria (with decadal smoothing)
compared with the range of projected warming to 2100 under a medium emission
scenario. (Note that the global warming for the scenario used in this figure is only
2.8°C.)
In a Four Degree World, projected warmings in our region will be accompanied
by a large increase in the frequency of high-temperature extremes and a decrease
