Australia’s climate in a Four Degree World - Four Degrees of Global Warming - page 4

models, selected for projecting global warmings approaching four degrees or more
by 2100 or earlier. Finally, other relevant results are drawn from the literature,
including some commentary on recent observed climatic trends, to form some
context for projections about a Four Degree World.

Temperature change
Figure 2.1 shows projected Australian warming at 1 4°C global warming for the
summer and winter seasons, and for high, medium and low chances of being
exceeded (Watterson, 2008). Table 2.1 shows ranges of warming for selected
sites.
In inland regions in summer, warming is typically above the global average
and ranges between 3.5°C and 7°C; in winter, it is centred more on the global
average with a range of 3°C to 5°C. Southern and northern coastal areas warm at
close to the global average rate (range of 3-5°C). However, in southern areas in
winter, the warming range is around 2-4°C. Warming at 1 4° C from a different

JJA

DJF

w w

10
percentile

•

. .•.. , .

. ...

50
percentile

90
percentile

1,8 3 3,6 4,2 4,8 6,6 7,2

2.4 5.4 6

Figure 2.1 Projected warming over Australia at 1 4°C GW for summer and winter and
for selected percentiles of the GCM-based uncertainty range

Notes
a Summer = DJF; winter = JJA.
b Developed using a climate model ensemble and the method of Watterson (2008).