Can we successfully adapt to four degrees of global warming? - Four Degrees of Global Warming - page 204

Table 13.1 Examples of recent storyline type scenarios across different scales

Study Scale Horizon Storylines

IPCC-SRES
(Naki´enovi´
and Swart,
2000)

Global 2100 A1 : rapid market driven growth, convergence in

incomes and culture; rapid technological change.
A2 : Self-reliance and preservation of local identities;
fragmented development.
B1 : similar to A1, but emphasizes global solutions to
sustainability, relying heavily on technology.
B2 : local technological and policy solutions to
economic, social and environmental sustainability.

Global Scenario
Group (Raskin
et al., 2002)

Global 2050 Conventional worlds : gradual convergence of

incomes and culture toward dominant market model
a Market forces : market-driven globalization, trade
liberalization, institutional modernization
b Policy reform : strong policy focus on meeting
sustainability goals through technology.
Barbarization : social and environmental problems
overwhelm market and policy response
a Breakdown : unbridled conflict, institutional
disintegration, economic collapse
b Fortress world : authoritarian rule with elites in
'fortress'; poverty and repression outside.
Great transitions : fundamental changes in values,
lifestyles and institutions
a Eco-communalism : local focus and bioregional
perspective
b New sustainability paradigm : sustainable
globalization, changing industrial society.

Millennium
Ecosystem
Assessment
(Cork et al.,
2005)

Global 2100 Global orchestration : a globally connected world

with well-developed global markets and supranational
institutions to deal with global environmental
problems and inequity.
Order of strength : a fragmented world concerned
with security and protection of regional markets and
with little attention for common goods.
Adapting mosaic : a fragmented world resulting from
discredited global institutions leads to the rise of local
and regional initiatives supporting common goals.
TechnoGarden : a globally connected world
relying strongly on technology, seeking to solve
environmental problems and global inequity.