Can we successfully adapt to four degrees of global warming? - Four Degrees of Global Warming - page 205

Study Scale Horizon Storylines

UK National
Ecosystem
Assessment
(2011)

National 2060 Green and pleasant land : a preservationist attitude

arises because the UK can afford to look after its own
backyard without diminishing the ever-increasing
standards of living.
Nature@work : widely-accepted belief that the
promotion of ecosystem services through the
creation of multifunctional landscapes is essential for
maintaining the quality of life in the UK.
Local stewardship : a future where society is more
concerned with the immediate surroundings and strives
to maintain a sustainable focus on life within that area.
Go with the flow: projection of current trends
resulting in a future UK that is roughly based on
today's ideals and targets.
National security : climate change results in increases
in global energy prices forcing many countries to
attempt greater self-sufficiency (and efficiency) in
many of their core industries.
World markets : high economic growth with a greater
focus on removing barriers to trade.

Shared Socio-
economic
Pathways
(O'Neill et al.,
2011)

Global 2100 SSP1 : Sustainability. Low socio-economic challenges

for adaptation and mitigation.
SSP2 : Middle of the Road. Intermediate challenges
for adaptation and mitigation.
SSP3 : Fragmentation. High socio-economic
challenges for adaptation and mitigation.
SSP4 : Inequality. Adaptation challenges dominate.
SSP5 : Conventional Development. Mitigation
challenges dominate.

Resilience and
water security
in two outback
cities (Albrecht
et al., 2010)

Regional 2070 She'll be right mate

Chill out man! It's all sorted
Mmmmmmm….it's not looking good
We'll all be rooned/Up shit creek

Source: Modified from Rounsevell and Metzger, 2010
Note
a For detailed summary of more global and regional storylines see Rounsevell and
Metzger (2010).

Setting the scene for Australia
Australia is a country of 23 million people inhabiting the driest of the earth's
continents. Of these 23 million, over a quarter (26 per cent) were born overseas,
and 20 per cent (4.1 million) are the children of migrants but born in Australia
(Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012). It is a highly urbanized society, with
70 per cent of the population living in the six biggest cities, and a coastal society
- 90 per cent of the population lives within 30 km of the coast.