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it is the effects of variations in such institutions that we seek to explore through
this chapter.
Efforts to explore the range of environmental and social impacts that might
arise from high rates of warming have taken 4°C of warming as the measure of
change (e.g. Stafford Smith et al., 2011). This research has largely been about
the impacts of climate change and not about what adaptation can (and cannot)
do to avoid these impacts. To extend this research endeavor, in this chapter
we construct three storylines about future institutions, and explore what these
imply with respect to adaptation to high rates of warming. To move beyond the
character of past research about high rates of warming, we apply these storylines
to a specific context, an approach which is reinforced by the recognition that
the determinants and measures of adaptation success (or failure) are nationally
and/or culturally specific (Adger et al., 2005; Haddad, 2005). In this chapter we
take as an example Australia - a country that occupies a whole continent, which
is culturally and ecologically heterogeneous, and whose vulnerability to climate
change has been well documented (Hennessy et al., 2007; Braganza et al., 2013,
Chapter  3 in this volume). As we shall demonstrate, national policy decisions
are significant determinants of the capacity to successfully adapt (or not) to these
risks, which amplify with increases in warming. We highlight the implications of
the choices we make about the way we live for the degree to which we can adapt
to high levels of warming.
Scenarios and storylines
This chapter uses storyline-type scenarios to explore the potential to adapt to
climate change associated with high levels of warming. Scenarios are plausible
and often simplified images of how the future might unfold based on a coherent
and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and
relationships (Naki ´enovi ´ and Swart, 2000; Raskin et al., 2005). A variety of
techniques have been used to construct scenarios in climate change research,
varying from quantitative to qualitative, or some mix of these (Carter et al.,
2007; Moss et al., 2010). Although there is no clear delineation of terminology
in the climate change literature in particular, but also more generally (but see
van Vuuren et al., 2012), the term 'storyline' is widely used to describe quali-
tative and descriptive scenarios, based on written narratives, which create images
of future worlds (Rounsevell and Metzger, 2010; van Vuuren et al., 2012).
Some of the characteristics of the storyline-type scenarios identified in the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment include integration across social, economic
and environmental dimensions, regional disaggregation of global patterns and
numerous futures that reflect the deep uncertainties of long-range outcomes
(Raskin et al., 2005). Some examples of studies that have created storylines can
be seen in Table 13.1 .
 
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