Multi-model Ensemble Based Extended Range Forecast of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 206

Fig. 3: 850 hPa mean and anomaly wind for two weeks based on 27 Oct 2011 and valid
for 31 Oct to 13 Nov.: (a) & (b) Valid for days 5-11 forecast (31 Oct-6 Nov, 2011). (c)
and (d) valid for days 12-18 forecast (7-13 Nov., 2011).
also indicated in terms of positive rainfall anomalies over the Arabian Sea and
negative anomalies over the Bay of Bengal in the forecast for days 5-11 and
days 12-18 valid for the same period of 28 Nov-04 December (Fig. 5e-f).
(iii) Very Severe Cyclone “Thane” over Bay of Bengal
(25-30 December)
An unusual very severe cyclonic storm formed in the month of December,
2011. The system formed initially as a low pressure area over southeast Bay of
Bengal on 24 th December near about 7°N and 88°E. The system intensified
into a depression on 25 th December 2011 at 12 UTC and crossed as very severe
cyclone on 30 th December between Nagapattnam and Chennai coast in Tamil
Nadu. Considering climatology, though, the frequency of genesis is very less
in last week of December, there are past cases of very severe cyclonic storm,
which developed on 26 December over almost the same region and had crossed
Sri Lanka and finally Tamil Nadu coast near Rameswaram in 1964. The MME