Multi-model Ensemble Based Extended Range Forecast of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean - Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change - page 205

Fig. 2: MME forecast wind and rainfall valid for 17-23 October 2011: (a) days 5-11
forecast wind based on 13 Oct. (b) days 12-18 forecast wind based on 06 Oct. (c) and
(d), same as 'a' and 'b' but for rainfall anomaly.
rainfall (Fig. 4c-d) and rainfall anomaly (Fig. 4e-f). It is also seen from Fig.
4e-f that the large negative anomalies in rainfall over the Bay of Bengal indicated
the subdued convective activity over the Bay of Bengal and thereby no formation
of any system over the region during this period.
One more depression formed over the Arabian Sea during the period from
26 November to 1 December as seen in Fig. 1. The MME forecast 850 hPa
wind anomaly valid for the period from 28 November-04 December based on
initial condition of 24 Nov (days 5-11 forecast) and the initial condition of 17
Nov (days 12-18 forecast) clearly indicated closed anomalous cyclonic
circulation over the Arabian Sea (Fig. 5a-b). The MME 850 hPa mean vorticity
during 28 November-04 December also indicated cyclonic vorticity over the
Arabian Sea and mainly anticyclonic vorticity over the Bay of Bengal (Fig. 5c
and d) during the forecast based on 24 th and 17 th November initial condition
respectively. The active convection over the Arabian Sea during the period is