Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
California and the Paciic Northwest share generating resources by long-distance
transmission lines. The Paciic Northwest hydropower supplies may be less available in
California in the future (Markof and Cullen 2008, Perez et al., 2009). Lu et al. (2010) have
demonstrated the adverse impact of simultaneous warming across the Western Grid.
Practice elsewhere varies. For example, the Tennessee Valley Authority has not in-
cluded the impact of climate change on energy demand in their needs for power analy-
ses, but is now on record for developing a Climate Adaptation Plan by June 2012 and
updating it periodically (TVA, 2011). State assessments of the impacts of climate change
do not necessarily deal with changes in energy demand. For example, Washington's
does (Washington DoE, 2009), but Wisconsin's (Wisconsin DNR, 2011) does not. Al-
though the 2009 New York State Energy Plan (New York State Energy Planning Board,
2009) mentions changes in demand for energy, no quantitative assessment was done.
However, the scope of the 2013 plan appears to anticipate a quantitative assessment
(New York State Energy Planning Board, 2011).
2) IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BUILDING ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
SAP 4.5 found that on an annual basis, the amount of energy demanded for heating falls
and the amount of energy demanded for cooling rises as a result of climate change. Since
2007 there has been much more extensive use of the self-consistent climate scenarios de-
veloped for the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakićenović, et al., 2000).
Also there has been extensive downscaling of these scenarios for use in energy projec-
tions and more use of detailed regional scenarios (e.g., Washington DoE 2009; Miller et
al., 2007, 2008; Lu et al., 2010; Xu et al., 2009; Hayhoe, et al., 2010). Some authors have
made use of whole-building engineering models that are more sophisticated in handling
of the impacts of lighting and internal gains on the heating/cooling balance of buildings
(e.g. Crowley 2008). However, newer studies of both residential and commercial energy
demand studies tend to conirm indings of SAP 4.5.
One of the more innovative studies estimated a climate response curve for electricity
in California was based on unique individual billing data from residential customers
of California's private utilities, assigned to individual zip codes and weather stations
(Aroonruengsawat and Auhammer, 2009). The authors note that changes in per house-
hold electricity consumption from climate change are driven by two factors—the shape
of the weather-electricity consumption relationship and the change in projected climate.
The steepest increases in demand were projected to occur in what are now the high-
temperature areas of the state—the Central Valley and southeast California. Aggregate
demand was projected to increase from 9% to 17% by the middle the 21
st
century. A 30%
price increase could cut that growth by 11 to 14 percentage points, leaving electricity
use largely unchanged at mid-century. Illustrating the importance of population growth
in comparison with climate change, population growth projections to mid-century pro-
duces demand increases from 41% to 42%.
Market penetration of air conditioning
Predicting or accounting for increased future climate change-related market penetration
of air conditioning has become more common in investigations of the impacts of climate
