Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
change on energy use in buildings. In SAP 4.5, there was only one study found that
had explicitly dealt with the potential impact of climate change on the market penetra-
tion of air conditioning, Sailor and Pavlova, 2003. Several subsequent studies have either
adopted the Sailor and Pavlova approach (e.g., Shorr et al., 2009, Hamlet et al., 2009)
or have modiied it (McNeil and Letschert , 2007, Isaac and van Vuuren, 2009). In all of
these studies, the increased penetration of air conditioning exacerbates the efects of hot-
ter temperatures on space cooling energy consumption and on peak electricity demand.
Generally speaking, these studies have not reported the impact on peak demand,
although it is clear that summer peak demand would be exacerbated. Both Isaac and van
Vuuren (2009) and Shorr et al. (2009) discuss the countervailing impact of increases in
air conditioning eiciency.
Extreme weather and peak demand
Some studies published in 2007 and later have explicitly considered the impact of heat
wave conditions on peak electricity demand. These studies show that average daily de-
mand increases non-linearly as CDD increases, while peak demand in creases roughly
in proportion to maximum daily temperature. In Chicago, Hayhoe et al. (2010) looked
at 99
th
and 99.9
th
percentile 3-hr periods, which increased dramatically, although they
did not derive a quantitative impact on peak demand. In California, there has been de-
tailed investigation of the impact of days in the summer whose daily maximum is hot-
ter than would be expected 90% of the time under existing climate (Miller et al., 2007,
2008) and on peak demand days (Franco and Sanstad, 2008). At mid-century, California
peak demand was projected to grows slightly faster than annual electricity consumption
(Franco and Sanstad, 2008). Peak electricity kWh are typically much more expensive to
supply than average kWh, and high demand may strain the capabilities of the transmis-
sion and distribution system, leading to power loss events.
Impacts of urban sprawl, heat islands, and community form on heating and cooling
Some studies have atempted to estimate the formation and efect of urban heat islands
on energy demand in buildings. The U.S. studies include Rong, 2006, Contreras, 2009,
Crawley, 2008, Rosenzweig et al., 2006, 2009). Crawley estimated the impact of “low”
(1° C) and “high” (5° C) impacts of urban heat island efects on small oice buildings in
Washington D.C. (moderate-temperature humid climate). The heat island efects were
similar in size to those of climate changes. Eicient buildings were less inluenced than
were standard buildings by increases in temperature. This implies less “beneit” on the
heating side of the ledger, since beter-insulated buildings require less heating to begin
with. However, there is also less “cost” on the cooling side of the ledger, since the inte-
rior of the building requires less active cooling as summer temperatures rise.
Rong (2006) estimated urban sprawl as a index created from a principal components
analysis. She used household characteristics data from the American Housing Survey,
2000 Census of Population public use sample and Residential Energy Consumption Sur-
vey (RECS) to estimate county-level energy demand for large U.S. counties as a function
of housing selection, CDD, HDD, energy price and other variables. She then modeled
residential energy use as a function of urban sprawl, indirectly through the mediators
of house type and house size. National average impacts on electricity consumption
were -5% for HDD (with most regions negative), and +17% for CDD, (with most regions
