Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
total annual energy use (including efects of changing prices) was a very modest 0.4%.
However, peak electricity use increased by 4.4 % in the summer while winter peak use
fell by 0.8%. Summer electricity prices also increased for both residential and commer-
cial customers.
Regional Studies
Most regions are summer-peaking regions for electrical demand. The Paciic North-
west has an atypical
winter-peaking
electrical system (due to high market penetration of
electric heating). Even here, though, projected shifts in the seasonality of water avail-
ability for hydropower combined with projected increases in summer demand to cause
summer peak problems. The Northwest Power Planning and Conservation Council's 6
th
Northwest Conservation and Power Plan discussed climatic change, and (NPCC 2010)
addressed the impact of climate change on electricity demand. The Council staf de-
termined that a 2°F increase in average winter temperature (3°F at peak) would result
in a 600 MW decrease in average electricity demand and a decrease in winter peak de-
mand,of 1,000 MW. In summer, the corresponding increase in July average temperature
of about 3 degrees resulted in a 1,000 MW increase in average monthly load and a 3,000
MW increase in peak summer load. Together with increased hydroelectric yields in win-
ter and reduced hydroelectric yields in summer, the net load/resource balance increased
1,200 average megawats in winter and decreased by 3,220 average megawats in sum-
mer. Resource adequacy improved in winter and declined in summer. Similarly, Ham-
let et al. (2010), combining efects of direct temperature change with increased market
penetration of air conditioning and continued population growth, concluded that
“. . . the combined efects of population growth and warming are projected to increase
heating energy demand overall (22-23% for the 2020s, 35-42% for the 2040s, and
56-74% for the 2080s), warming results in reduced per capita heating demand. Resi-
dential cooling energy demand (currently less than one percent of residential demand)
increases rapidly (both overall and per capita) to 4.8-9.1% of the total demand by
the 2080s due to increasing population, cooling degree days, and air conditioning
penetration.”
In California there have been a number of studies of the impacts of climate change
on the electricity sector, several of which were just coming out as SAP 4.5 was being
writen, and the results of which were included in Box 2.2 of that document (“Califor-
nia's Perspective on Climate Change”). The California Energy Commission (CEC) and
a number of individual researchers in California (e.g., Miller et al., 2007, 2008; Franco
and Sanstad, 2008) have continued the analysis of climate change and its efects on state
energy consumption. Messner et al. (2009) speciically investigated the efects on elec-
tricity demand in San Diego, while Xu et al. (2009) and Vine (2008) speciically consid-
ered adaptive responses. Incorporating climate change impacts on temperature, the most
recent CEC forecast documents report that
“……the projected impacts of climate change in the mid and high demand scenarios
on peak demand for the ive major planning areas and for the state as a whole. By
2022, statewide peak impacts reach over 400 MW in the mid demand case and around
650 MW in the high demand case (California Energy Commission, 2011).
