Energy Efficiency of Passenger Transport in Poznan Agglomeration in the Face of Peak Oil - Technology Management for Sustainable Production and Logistics - page 151

Table 1 Motorization rate in selected countries, 2004-2011

Country Years

2004 2004 = 100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Japan 433 441 447 450 451 452 454 455 105.1

487 493 498 501 503 510 517 531 109.0

Germany

452 457 456 459 458 456 457 454 100.4

Great Britain

The Netherlands 430 435 442 451 459 461 466 471 109.5

314 323 351 383 422 432 452 470 149.7

Poland

Brazil 136 142 148 158 167 179 - - 131.6

China 12 15 18 23 27 35 44 54 450.0

8 9 10 10 10 11 - - 137.5

India

Russia 168 179 188 207 226 233 - - 138.7

RSA 92 97 102 107 108 110 112 - 121.7

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.PCAR.P3/countries/PL-GR-AE-EU?display = default

In developed countries, gradual saturation has been observed in the number of
passenger cars, whereas in developing countries, automotive industry rates are ris-
ing briskly (Table 1 ).
With the rising level of development, the growth rate of transport utilisation,
in particular in passenger cars, will be decreasing, as indicated by the data above.
Such a trend will also persist in Poland although deceleration in the level of demand
for transportation is expected to occur in a few years. Expert forecasts indicate that
in OECD countries the GDP per capita will have risen by an average of 85-110 %
by the year 2050, whereas the demand for passenger transport will only have
increased by between 10 and 50 %, and for cargo transport between 50 and 130 %.
At the same time it must be remembered that developed countries are inhabited
by only 1 billion people and the vast majority of the remaining part of population
would like to live their “American Dream” and improve their standard of living
considerably. Their transportation needs will be on the increase as the majority of
those people do not even own a bicycle and mostly travel on foot. In the most
likely prognoses of UN experts, the population of developing countries will have
risen from 5.9 (in 2000) to 8.3 billion people by 2050 (UN 2013 ).
Not only fulfilling one's dreams, but mostly fulfilling one's daily duties by the
inhabitants of developing countries will translate into the expansion of scale of trans-
port utilization. According to International Transport Forum (ITF 2012 ), passenger
transport is forecast to increase from 140 to 260 % in these countries, and cargo
transport from 150 to 450 % at the GDP per capita growth estimated at 220-270 %.
Catering for increased transport needs will go hand in hand with a consider-
able increase in the number of vehicles. Experts have calculated that the num-
bers of cars will have risen to around 2.8 billion by 2030, including 900 million
motorbikes and motor scooters. In 2000, the total number of vehicles in the world
was 840 and 250 million single-track vehicles (currently it is 1.5 billion including
1 billion passenger cars) (Sperling and Gordon 2009 ).
Analysts of Goldman Sachs forecast an even larger growth in the number of
cars (Sachs 2009 ). According to them, it is only in BRIC countries that the number