Energy Efficiency of Passenger Transport in Poznan Agglomeration in the Face of Peak Oil - Technology Management for Sustainable Production and Logistics - page 152

of cars in 2030 will reach 770 million and as many as 1.2 billion in 2040. That
number was only 145 million in 2010. A similar process was observed in fast
developing countries like Poland, where the number of registered passenger cars
rose from 5.3 million in 1990 to 17.9 million in 2012 (GUS 2004 , 2013 ).
In order to meet the demand for new cars, their production will have to increase
from 81 million (including light trucks) in 2012 (KPMG 2013 ) to around 120
million in 2030 and as many as 170-180 million in 2050 (IEA 2009 ). Manufacturing
an average car at the beginning of the 21st century necessitated 680 kg of steel,
230 kg of iron, 90 kg of plastic, 45 kg of rubber, 45 kg of aluminium and some
other raw materials as well as 8-28 MW of energy (Dennis and Urry 2009 ). This
will require a rise in the consumption of resources, including petroleum, and electric
power in the course of their extraction, transportation and in the actual process of
production and delivery of cars to a show room or to end customer.
A considerable rise in transport performance is also expected for other means
of transport, in particular air transport. In 2012 a total of 3 billion passengers were
carried and 51.4 million tonnes of cargo which was an increase of 48 and 33 %
than in 2004 respectively. According to IATA estimations, in 2014, 3.3 billion peo-
ple and 51.7 million tonnes of cargo will be carried by air. Until 217, this number
will be rising at a yearly rate of 6.4 % for passenger transport and 4.5 % for cargo
(IATA 2014 ). The demand for petroleum in aviation is tremendous. In 2012 air-
lines used 256 million tonnes of crude oil (IATA 2013 ).
Satisfying such considerable transportation needs will require the existing
infrastructure to be expanded. Trillions of dollars will have to be spent on invest-
ments in infrastructure and hundreds of billions of dollars for their maintenance
later. Each investment will require considerable energy consumption, most of
which will derive from burning petroleum.
3 Petroleum Supply
A record-breaking amount of 4.2 billion tonnes (87.3 million barrels per day; b/d)
of petroleum was produced in the world in 2013. Most of the oil was extracted
from conventional sources (73 million b/d, 83.6 %). Natural gas liquids (NGL) are
obtained in the process of natural gas extraction and processing (12.5 million b/d,
14.3 %) and from non-conventional sources: tight oil (shale oil) 1 and by deepwater
drilling—from under seafloor, oil trapped in oil sands and kerogen (altogether
1.8 million b/d, 2.1 %—excluding shale oil) 2 (IEA 2014 ).
The mean amount of oil resources discovered in the course of the last five years
was 12-13 billion barrels per year. This means the newly discovered sources
1 Shale oil is considered to be an unconventional source of oil, even though IEA includes shale
supply together with conventional sources, which is a surprising inconsistency.
2 Biofuels have been purposefully excluded as they are considered to be a separate category.
Their overall share is fairly insignificant, the world production of it in 2012 was 2.0 million b/d.
Also, the so called processing gains (ca. 2.2 million b/d) have been excluded.