Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
involving 'people-to-people' exchanges) in the belief that more contact between
Indians and Pakistanis would help dispel misperceptions and point to areas
where agreement might be possible. All of these efforts seek to moderate, if not
transform, a relationship that seems to be based on fear, hatred, and distrust.
They emphasize the gains and benefits that each side may reap from cooperation.
Both India and Pakistan have agreed to a wide variety of CBMs, including pre-
notification of troop movements and exercises, the location of nuclear facilities,
hotlines between military commanders, regular meetings between prime
ministers, and restrictions on propaganda and other steps that might exacerbate
India-Pakistan relations.
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The best that can be said for these CBMs is that
neither India nor Pakistan has yet boasted of breaking the arrangements. In time
of crisis most have simply ceased to function, and whatever 'lessons' about
cooperation have been learned seem to evaporate. Nevertheless, there is a strong
feeling in both countries that they can avoid major conflict and that South Asia is
not as unstable as outsiders believe.
Besides these long-term efforts to change perceptions, build trust, and clarify
areas of agreement and disagreement, the prospect of a major transformation of
the India-Pakistan relationship cannot be ruled out. There are several scenarios;
some of these seem far-fetched at the moment, but all are worth at least a brief
mention.
(1) Pakistan could collapse under the weight of its own contradictions and cease
to exist in its present form, perhaps splitting into several states. This seems
to be the formula of many Indian strategists who expect the Kashmir
problem will be solved in the same way that East and West Berlin were
merged, the smaller simply ceasing to exist. Such a Pakistan might continue
as a united state (few Indians would welcome the addition of a hundred
million Muslims to the Indian union), but it certainly would not be able to
stand up militarily and politically to Delhi.
(2) India could cause Pakistan to change its identity or cease to exist in its
present form. One precedent is the creation of Bangladesh, an Islamic state
which is unwilling to challenge India in any significant way. However, India
could alter Pakistan's national identity by other means. Delhi could support
dissident ethnic and linguistic groups in Pakistan, especially those who were
less 'Islamic' or less anti-Indian than the Punjab.
(3) Some nationalist-Hindu ideologues believe that India's 'civilizational pull'
will triumph over the idea of Pakistan, and Pakistanis will simply succumb
to India's greater cultural and social power. They do not expect Pakistan to
necessarily merge with India, although many Indians who hail from towns
and villages that are now in Pakistan would like to see some parts of Sind
and West Punjab reincorporated into India. This school is prepared to wait
