Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
relations for 50 years, and has generated dozens of prospective 'solutions' for
Kashmir, the Pakistani debate is dominated by the civil and military security
establishment, and moderate or doveish views are rarely heard. In recent years an
increasingly shrill Islamic element calls for even tougher measures against India,
but this is likely to change as a result of the complete misjudgment by Pakistan's
Islamist hawks concerning Afghanistan, and the anger felt by the Pakistan army
when Pakistan's Islamist leaders started to attack the army for its support of the
American-led operation in Afghanistan. Pakistan could be on the verge of a major
re-evaluation of its relationship with Islamic extremism, and will come under
increasing American pressure to reduce or eliminate its support for terrorist-
inclined groups operating in Kashmir itself.
Complicating the prospect of Pakistan as a partner in a peace process is the
intense debate on state identity that Pakistanis have been engaged in for many
years. While Pakistan began as a homeland for Indian Muslims, and justified this
identity because Hindus and Muslims were 'two nations', the debate over
Pakistani identity has moved well beyond this. After the Punjabi-dominated
military assumed power, Pakistanis came to see themselves as Fortress Pakistan:
a state (that happened to be Muslim) threatened by India. This was a Punjab-
centric view of Pakistan. Subsequently, after the loss of East Bengal, Pakistanis
turned toward Islam as a way of asserting a national identity. In the midst of a
debate over their own national identity, Pakistanis find it essential to agree on at
least one point, and that is the unremitting hostility of India.
In the end, a comprehensive peace process may require an outside power or
powers. The only state that could now initiate such a process would be America,
but since 1964 Washington has been reluctant to become deeply engaged in
South Asian conflicts. Recent American studies stopped well short of
recommending a regional peace process, and there appears to be little interest in
an enhanced American role although since the 1998 tests it has become more
active behind the scenes, fearful that events in might slip out of control between
the two South Asian nuclear rivals.
More likely than a peace process involving Kashmir are steps that encourage
accommodation in other areas—the strategy of the indirect approach. The past 15
years have seen considerable interest in measures that might reduce conflict and
increase regional stability. The uprising in Kashmir, the 1998 nuclear tests, and
the Kargil war of 1999 all stimulated interest in Track II diplomacy between
India and Pakistan, and the role that third-parties might take in promoting the India-
Pakistan dialogue.
There has been considerable discussion about enhancing regional economic
cooperation, which might create new domestic 'lobbies' in each state. These
could eventually provide the political backing for a peace process. Others,
especially the European and American foundations, have actively supported
Track II and Track III diplomacy (the first being quasi-official, the second
