Tourism, Climate Change and Development - Tourism and Development: Concepts and Issues - page 351

environmental change, and climate-related societal change will have far-
reaching impacts on tourism destinations; impacts which are already becom-
ing evident at destinations around the world. The regional manifestations of
climate change will generate both negative and positive impacts in the tour-
ism sector and these impacts will vary substantially by market segment and
geographic region. It is beyond the scope of this chapter to discuss the full
range of potential climate change impacts upon the diversity of tourism des-
tinations in developing nations. However, notable impacts include a poten-
tial long-term gradual shift in preferred destinations and tourist spending to
higher latitude temperate nations and higher elevation mountainous areas
(Amelung et al. , 2007; Hamilton et al. , 2005; Scott et al. , 2004); significant
impacts on terrestrial and marine biodiversity in developing nations at both
species and ecological scales (Hall, 2010c; IPCC, 2007); greater risk of the
establishment and spread of invasive species (Hall, 2010a); increased risk of
extreme events and attendant infrastructure damage and tourism interrup-
tion IPCC (2007); risks to World Heritage Sites (UNESCO, 2008); greater
problems with security of water and food supplies (World Bank, 2012); and
major risks to coastal tourism infrastructure due to longer-term sea level rise
(Dasgupta et al. , 2007). Importantly, summary assessments by different
groups of international experts have consistently identified developing
nations in the Caribbean, SIDS, Southeast Asia, and Africa as the most at-
risk tourism destinations for the mid- to late-21st century (Table 11.6).
While our understanding of the impacts of climate change for various
destination types has continued to improve, there remain major regional
gaps in our knowledge of how climate change will affect tourism resources
in Africa, the Caribbean, South America, the Middle East and large parts of
East Asia (Hall, 2008a; Scott et al. , 2008, 2012b; Su et al. , 2013; World Bank,
2012). Until more systematic regional-level assessments are conducted, defin-
itive statements on the net impacts on the tourism sector and the potential
for future tourism development will not be possible.
Leisure tourists have the greatest capacity to adapt to the impacts of
climate change, with relative freedom to avoid climate change-affected des-
tinations. Climate, the natural environment, personal safety and travel cost
are four primary factors in destination choice, and, as outlined above, global
climate change is anticipated to have significant impacts on all of these fac-
tors at the regional level. It is the response of tourists to the complexity of
destination impacts that will reshape consumer demand patterns and play a
pivotal role in the eventual impacts on destinations (Gössling et al. , 2012).
The perceptions of future impacts of climate change at destinations will be
central to the decision-making of tourists, tourism investors, governments
and development agencies alike, as perceptions of climate conditions or envi-
ronmental changes are just as important to consumer choices as the actual
conditions. Perceptions of climate change impacts in a region are also often
heavily influenced by the nature of media coverage. It is, therefore, critical to