Tourism, Climate Change and Development - Tourism and Development: Concepts and Issues - page 352

Table 11.6 Estimated climate change vulnerability of tourism in developing regions

Study Timeframe

assessed

Vulnerability
categories

Regions

Deutsche Bank
Research, 2008

2030 Negatively Affected

(slightly or
strongly) a

South America,
Caribbean/Mexico,
Southeast Asia
(including China
and India), Middle
East, Africa b

Gössling & Hall,
2006; Hall, 2008 a

Mid-21st century Moderately

to strongly
negatively
impacted c

Africa, Asia, Latin
America, Small
Island Nations

Hamilton et al. ,
2005

2025, + 4°C
warming
scenario

Negative impact on
tourist arrivals d

Caribbean/Mexico,
South America
(except Chile),
Africa (except
Zambia and
Zimbabwe), Middle
East, Southeast
Asia (except China)

Scott et al. , 2008 Mid-21st century Vulnerability

hotspots e

Caribbean, Indian and
Pacifi c Ocean Small
Island Nations f

Notes:
a. Impact criteria considered: climatic changes, regulatory burdens, substitution effects,
adaptation possibilities. Data sources and indicators for these criteria were not identifi ed.
b. Many nations in the Middle East and Africa were 'not examined'; however no rationale was
provided regarding availability of information for selected nations.
c. Impact criteria considered: land and marine biodiversity loss, urbanisation, water security, sea
level rise, regime change, fuel costs, temperature changes, disease potential.
d. Impact criteria considered: change in annual average temperature.
e. Impact criteria considered: summer and winter climatic change, increases in extreme events,
seal level rise, land and marine biodiversity loss, water scarcity, political destabilisation, health
impacts/disease potential, transportation costs and relative importance of tourism to the
economy.
f. South America, Africa, Middle East, Southeast Asia were identifi ed as potentially vulnerable, but
not listed as 'hotspots' due to insuffi cient information on magnitude of potential impacts.

avoid the type of media speculation and misinformation likely to be more
damaging to a tourism destination in the near-term than the actual climate
impacts (Scott & Lemieux, 2009, 2010; Scott et al. , 2012b).
Knowledge of the economic, social and technological capabilities of cur-
rent climate adaptations to cope successfully with future climate change