Tourism, Climate Change and Development - Tourism and Development: Concepts and Issues - page 335

Table 11.1 ( Continued )

Key impacts Examples

Marine ecosystems: The combined
effects of warming and ocean
acidifi cation are projected to
cause major damages to marine
ecosystems, especially coral reef
systems.

￿ Under 1.5°C warming and increasing ocean
acidifi cation, there is a high risk (50%
probability) of annual bleaching events
occurring as early as 2030 in SE Asia.
Projections indicate that all coral reefs in
the region are very likely to experience
severe thermal stress by the year 2050,
as well as chemical stress due to ocean
acidifi cation.
￿ Most coral reefs are unlikely to survive if
4°C warming is reached.

Note: a. 'Unusual' and 'unprecedented' heat extremes are defi ned by using thresholds based on the
historical variability of the current local climate in the base period (1951-1980), which is cap-
tured by the standard deviation (sigma). Unusual heat extremes are defi ned as 3-sigma events.
For a normal distribution, 3-sigma events have a return time of 740 years. Unprecedented heat
extremes are defi ned as 5-sigma events. They have a return time of several million years (World
Bank, 2013).
Source: After World Bank, 2013.

locations they are more vulnerable to some dimensions of climate change,
such as SLR, than higher latitude countries. Third, their economic status
affects their adaptive capacity with respect to climate change. Finally, they
are the overt focus of attempts by institutions, such as the United Nations
World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), to promote tourism as a mechanism
for economic development, often as part of poverty reduction programmes
of so-called pro-poor tourism initiatives. Therefore, because of tourism's
contribution to climate change, any measures to reduce emissions may also
affect the tourism industries of these countries.

Tourism and Development

On a global scale, tourism is a significant economic activity with growth
forecast to continue in the foreseeable future. In 2012, international tourist
arrivals reached 1 billion for the first time, up from 25 million in 1950, 277
million in 1980 and 528 million in 1995 (UNWTO, 2012, 2013a). International
tourism is projected to nearly double by 2030 (UNWTO, 2011f) from its
2012 figure. The UNWTO predicts the number of international tourist arriv-
als will increase by an average 3.3% per year between 2010 and 2030 (an
average increase of 43 million arrivals a year), reaching an estimated 1.8 bil-
lion arrivals by 2030 (UNWTO, 2011f, 2012). Upper and lower forecasts for