Travel Reference
In-Depth Information
global tourism in 2030 are between approximately 2 billion arrivals ('real
transport costs continue to fall' scenario) and 1.4 billion arrivals ('slower than
expected economic recovery and future growth' scenario) respectively
(UNW TO, 2011f). Most growth is forecast to come from the emerging econ-
omies and the Asia-Pacific, and by 2030 it is estimated that 57% of interna-
tional arrivals will be in what are currently classified as emerging economies
(UNWTO, 2011f, 2012). Although international tourism is usually the pri-
mary national policy focus because of its trade dimensions (Coles & Hall,
2008), the vast majority of tourism is domestic in nature and accounted for
an estimated 4.7 billion arrivals in 2010 (Cooper & Hall, 2013).
Although the vast majority of international tourism currently occurs in
developed countries, the UNWTO has reported that international tourism
in emerging and developing markets grew at twice the rate of industrialised
countries. The UNWTO (2007a) estimated that tourism is a primary source
of foreign exchange earnings in 46 out of 50 of the world's LDCs. Between
1996 and 2006, international tourism in developing countries expanded
by 6% as a whole, by 9% for LDCs and 8% for other low and lower-middle
income economies (UNWTO, 2008b). Growth between 2000 and 2009 was
also most marked in emerging economies (58.8%) with their overall global
market share growing from 38.1% in 2000 to 46.9% in 2009 (UNEP, 2011).
The significant role of tourism in many developing economies is indi-
cated in Tables 11.2 and 11.3, and Figure 11.1. However, it should also be
noted that the vast majority of tourism is domestic rather than international
in nature and it therefore may not be fully captured in these statistics
(UNWTO, UNEP and WMO, 2008). Table 11.2 indicates that although travel
as an export activity has continued to grow over 2000-2011 its relative pro-
portion of total global export of services has declined, as with the developing
countries, although its contribution to export activity in the LDCs has con-
tinued to grow over the same period. In addition, it should be noted that
tourism's relative importance in service exports varies by region, with it
being considerably more significant for Oceania and Africa, a slight decline
in Asia and a considerable decline in the Americas. To an extent such regional
differences are also reflected in Table 11.3 which outlines the importance of
tourism to different developing economies, with the most significant regions
by number of countries being Oceania, East Africa and the Caribbean, with
tourism being especially important to island states.
Considering the long-term growth of international tourism to developing
countries, it is therefore perhaps not surprising that tourism is increasingly
promoted by organisations such as the UNWTO, UNEP and many develop-
ment agencies as an important element in national employment generation
and poverty reduction strategies. According to the UNWTO (2006b: 3),
'Tourism development, if properly developed and supported, can indeed be a
“quick-win” in overcoming the economic and social conditions that prevail
in LDCs and in accelerating their integration into the world economy'. More
Search WWH ::
Custom Search