Tourism, Climate Change and Development - Tourism and Development: Concepts and Issues - page 334

Table 11.1 Overview of key climate change impacts

Key impacts Examples

Unusual and unprecedented a heat
extremes expected to occur far
more frequently and cover much
greater land areas.

In SE Asia under 2°C global warming, heat
extremes that are virtually absent at
present will cover nearly 60-70% of total
land area in summer, and unprecedented
heat extremes up to 30-40% of land area.

Rainfall regime changes and water
availability. Pressure on water
resources is expected to increase
signifi cantly.

￿ Declines of 20% in water availability are
projected for many regions under a 2°C
warming and of 50% for some regions
under 4°C warming.
￿ South Asian populations are likely to be
increasingly vulnerable to the greater
variability of precipitation changes,
in addition to the disturbances in
the monsoon system and rising peak
temperatures that could put water and
food resources at severe risk.

Terrestrial ecosystems: Increased
warming is expected to bring
about ecosystem shifts,
fundamentally altering species
compositions and leading to
species extinctions.

￿ By the 2030s (with 1.2-1.3°C warming),
some ecosystems in Africa are projected
to experience maximum extreme
temperatures well beyond present range,
with all African eco-regions exceeding this
range by 2070 (2.1-2.7°C warming).
￿ The distribution of species within
savannah ecosystems is projected to shift
from grasses to woody plants, as CO 2
fertilisation favours the latter, although
high temperatures and precipitation
defi cits may counter this effect. This shift
will reduce forage for livestock and stress
pastoral systems and livelihoods.

Sea-level rise (SLR): A rise of up to
50 cm by the 2050s may now be
unavoidable. Limiting warming to
2°C may limit global SLR to about
70 cm by 2100. A 100 cm SLR may
occur if emission increases continue
and raise the global average
temperature to 4°C by 2100 and
higher levels thereafter. Although
signifi cant uncertainty remains.

In SE Asia the projected SLR is 10-15%
higher than the global mean. The
combination of SLR and increased
intensity of storm surges and tropical
cyclones will severely impact coastal
systems, including major cities on river
deltas.