Travel Reference
In-Depth Information
This chapter first sets out a broad account of the impacts of climate
change before discussing contemporary perspectives on tourism as a develop-
ment strategy, particularly its potential to contribute to poverty alleviation
in least developed countries (LDCs). The major risks that climate policy and
climate change pose to the tourism sector and specifically for the prospects
for tourism development in developing countries are then examined. What
emerges clearly from this evidence is the need to rethink the future of inter-
national tourism development in a carbon-constrained global economy that
embraces the principles of climate justice.
The Impact of Climate Change
Despite greater awareness of climate change, in the absence of effective
near term actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions the likelihood
of 4°C warming being reached or exceeded this century continues to increase
(World Bank, 2013). The International Energy Agency (IEA) (2012) con-
cluded that, in the absence of further mitigation action, there is a 40% chance
of warming exceeding 4°C by 2100 and a 10% chance of it exceeding 5°C in
the same period. This does not mean that global mean temperatures will
stabilise at such a level. Without appropriate actions it is likely that average
temperatures and sea-levels would increase still further in the 22nd century.
Moreover, even at the present rate of 0.8°C above pre-industrial levels, obser-
ved climate change impacts are already substantial, with shifts in climatic
conditions and the frequency and intensity of high magnitude weather
events. These impacts are also disproportionately being felt in the LDCs. A
summary of some of these general effects is found in Table 11.1. The Global
Humanitarian Forum (GHF) (2009) indicates that every year climate change
already leaves over 300,000 people dead, 325 million people seriously
affected, and economic losses of US$125 billion (more than all of the present
world aid combined). In all, four billion people are regarded as vulnerable to
climate change and 500 million people are at extreme risk, with approxi-
mately half a million lives expected to be lost per annum to climate change
by 2029 (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009).
The general effects of climate change will clearly have a major impact on
development processes throughout the world because of effects on socio-
economic, food, political and environmental systems. The tourism system
will be affected because of impacts on destinations, changes in generating
areas as well as system-wide regulatory structures that seek to address cli-
mate change (Scott et al. , 2012b). Developed countries have the greatest
capacity to adapt to climate change, at least initially, because of their greater
wealth. However, this chapter focuses primarily on the tourism-climate
change relationship in LDCs for four main reasons. First, many of them are
highly tourism dependent. Second, because of their tropical and sub-tropical
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