Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
(especially among males) and to lower birth rates. In
recent years, Russia's economy has improved, but its
birth rate has remained low. Similar problems affl ict
Ukraine and Kazakhstan, two of Russia's neighbors,
which also show slow or negative growth.
Between 1900 and 2000, the world population rose
from 1.6 billion people to 6.1 billion, and in 2011, the
world population reached 7 billion. The growth in world
population is not a result of women having more children.
Instead, the last century of population growth stems
largely from longer life expectancies. In 1900, global life
expectancy was 30 years, and by 2000, it was 65 years.
Demographers now predict world population will stabi-
lize at around 10 billion people by 2100.
Predictions of a stabilized global population are
based on a combination of longer life expectancies coupled
with lower fertility rates. Demographers measure whether
a population can replace its deaths with births by looking
at
total fertility rates
(TFRs). To reach replacement
levels—to keep a population stable over time without
immigration—the women of childbearing age in a country
need a TFR of 2.1. The TFR reports the average number of
children born to a woman of childbearing age. In 2000,
more than 60 countries, containing 45 percent of the world's
population, had fallen below replacement level (Fig. 2.8).
Demographers at the United Nations predict the
TFR of the combined world will fall to 2.1 by 2030. The
world TFR combines regions including Europe, where
fertility levels are low (Fig. 2.9), and regions including
Africa, where fertility levels are high. Predicting popula-
tion growth is diffi cult because so much depends on the
decisions made by women of childbearing age. Demogra-
phers and population geographers agree that two major
trends are happening now that will infl uence how much
the world population continues to grow. First is the aging
population of Europe, China, and Japan, and second is the
declining fertility rate in many developing countries
including Brazil and Iran.
Both the aging population of developed countries
and the declining fertility rates in developing countries
lead to predictions that the global population will con-
tinue to grow but at a lower rate. The United Nations
reports the proportion of older to younger people in a
country with the
aging index
, which is the number of
people age 65 and older per 100 children ages 0-14. The
aging index reveals an older Europe with 263 older people
for every 100 children and a younger Africa with 37 older
people for every 100 children.
Why are women having fewer children? In wealthier
countries, more women are choosing to stay in school,
work on careers, and marry later, delaying childbirth. The
impact of the aging population of Europe can be seen in
the number of elderly people each person in the working-
age population supports through taxes.
An aging population requires substantial social
adjustments. Older people retire and eventually suffer
health problems, so they need pensions and medical care.
The younger workers in the population must work in
order to provide the tax revenues that enable the state to
pay for these services. As the proportion of older people in
a country increases, the proportion of younger people
decreases. Thus, fewer young workers are providing tax
revenues to support programs providing services for more
retired people. To change the age distribution of an aging
country and provide more taxpayers, the only answer is
immigration: infl uxes of younger workers to do the work
locals are unable or unwilling to do.
What will happen when a country resists immigra-
tion despite an aging population? Over the next half-
century, Japan will be an interesting case study. Japan's
population is no longer growing, and projections indi-
cate the Japanese population will decline as it ages. The
population fell from a peak of 127.84 million in 2004 to
127.51 million in 2009. Japan predicts its population will
fall below 100 million to 95.15 million by 2050. Japan
was a closed society for hundreds of years, and even
today, the Japanese government discourages immigra-
tion and encourages homogeneity of the population.
More than 98 percent of the country's population is Japa-
nese, according to government statistics. In August
1999, the British newspaper
The Guardian
reported that
the Japanese government's efforts to maintain the homo-
geneity of the population are often “lauded domestically
as a reason for the country's low crime rate” and strong
industrial economy.
In developing countries, a combination of govern-
ment and nongovernment organizational programs
encourage women to have fewer children. Some women
are also choosing to have fewer children because of eco-
nomic and social uncertainty in the developing world.
Today, TFRs are falling almost everywhere on Earth, in
large part because of family planning. In some countries
fertility rates are declining dramatically. Kenya's TFR is
now down to 4.6; China's fell from 6.1 to 1.75 in just 35
years, and in 2010 dropped to 1.5. Once the government
of Iran began to allow family planning, the TFR fell from
6.8 in 1980 to 1.8 in 2010.
There was a time when a low TFR seemed to be a
desirable national objective, something that all govern-
ments would surely want. However, long-term eco-
nomic implications and demographic projections gave
many governments pause. Countries need a young, vig-
orous, working-age population in order to work and pay
taxes to support the long-term needs of an aging popu-
lation. When governments saw their population growth
rates decline sharply, many took countermeasures.
China softened its One-Child Only policy, Sweden,
Russia, and other European countries provided fi nancial
