Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Population Growth at World, Regional,
National, and Local Scales
Analysis of population growth and change requires
attention to scale. In this section, we examine popula-
tion growth at different scales, but we must be mindful
that what happens at one scale can be affected by what
is happening at other scales and in other places at the
same time.
Keeping in mind that population change in one
place can be affected rapidly by what is going on in a
neighboring country or at the regional scale, one can gain
some insights by looking at population change within the
confi ned territory of a country (or other administrative
unit, such as a province or city). To calculate the natural
increase in a country's population, simply subtract deaths
from births. This is a simple statistic to calculate and
comprehend. However, calculating the natural increase
misses two other key components in a country's popula-
tion: immigration, which along with births adds to the
total population, and emigration (outmigration), which
along with deaths, subtracts from the total population.
Using these four components, we can calculate demo-
graphic change within a territory.
When we mapped population growth in Figure 2.7,
we did not take into account emigration and immigra-
tion. Other maps and tables of population growth you
see may consider emigration and immigration. Statis-
tics for each population trait can be calculated globally,
by region, by country, or even by smaller locale. When
studying population data across scales and across the
world, we must constantly remind ourselves of exactly
what is being calculated and for where. Otherwise,
many of the statistics we read will seemingly be
contradictory.
The map also reveals continuing high growth rates
in Muslim countries of North Africa and Southwest
Asia. Saudi Arabia has one of the highest growth rates in
the world, but some smaller countries in this region are
increasing even faster. For some time during the second
half of the twentieth century, countries in this region
saw their growth rates increase even as those in most of
the rest of the world were declining. But more recently
several of the fast-growing populations, for example,
those of Iran and Morocco, have shown signifi cant
declines. Demographers point to the correlation
between high growth rates and the low standing of
women: where cultural traditions restrict educational
and professional opportunities for women, and men
dominate as a matter of custom, rates of natural increase
tend to be high.
South Asia is the most important geographic region
in the population growth rate picture. The region
includes the country that appears destined to overtake
China as the world's most populous: India. Only one
country in this region has a growth rate lower than the
world average: Sri Lanka. But Sri Lanka's total popula-
tion is only 20.8 million, whereas the fast-growing coun-
tries, Pakistan and Bangladesh, have a combined
population exceeding 333 million. India, as the map
shows, is still growing well above the world average. The
situation in East Asia, the world's most populous region,
is different. China's offi cial rate of natural growth has
fallen well below 1.0 percent (0.5 in 2010), and Japan's
population is no longer growing. Southeast Asia's natural
growth rates remain higher, but this region's total popu-
lation is much lower than either East or South Asia; key
countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam,
have declining growth rates.
South America is experiencing signifi cant reductions
in natural population growth rates, where those rates were
alarmingly high just a generation ago. The region as a
whole is still growing at 1.4 percent, but Brazil's popula-
tion, for example, has declined from 2.9 percent in the
mid-1960s to 1.4 percent today. And the populations of
Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay are growing at rates well
below the world average.
As Figure 2.7 shows, the slowest growing countries—
including those with declining rates of natural popula-
tion increase—lie in the economically wealthier areas
of the world extending from the United States and
Canada across Europe and Japan. In the Southern
Hemisphere, Australia, New Zealand, and Uruguay are
in this category. Wealth is not the only reason for nega-
tive population growth rates. Russia's population is
declining because of social dislocation in the wake of
the collapse of the Soviet Union: deteriorating health
conditions, high rates of alcoholism and drug use, and
economic problems combine to shorten life expectancies
Population Growth at the Regional
and National Scales
The world map of population growth rates (Fig. 2.7), dis-
played by country, confi rms the wide range of natural
increases in different geographic regions. These variations
have existed as long as records have been kept: countries
and regions go through stages of expansion and decline at
varying times. In the mid-twentieth century, the popula-
tion of the former Soviet Union was growing vigorously.
Thirty years ago, India's population was growing at nearly
3.0 percent, more than most African countries; then India's
growth rate fell below that of Subsaharan Africa. Today,
Africa's rate of natural increase still is higher than India's
(2.4 percent to 1.3 percent), but now Subsaharan Africa
faces the impact of the AIDS epidemic, which is killing
millions, orphaning children, reducing life expectancies,
and curtailing growth rates.
