Health Effects of Aerosols - Aerosols: Measurement, Dosimetry, and Health Effects - page 598

TABLE 23.11
RRs (95% CI) of Mortality by Cause of Death Associated with an
Increase in Fine Particles or Sulfate in Risk Models with Alternative
Time Axes in the Reanalysis of the ACS Study a

Time Axis

Alternative
Risk Model

Calendar Year Age

Fine Particles Sulfate Fine Particles Sulfate

All causes (100%)
Base

1.27 (1.18-1.37) 1.26 (1.19-1.33) 1.26 (1.17-1.35) 1.25 (1.18-1.32)

Original 1.18 (1.10-1.27) 1.16 (1.10-1.23) 1.18 (1.10-1.27) 1.16 (1.10-1.22)

Full 1.17 (1.09-1.26) 1.15 (1.08-1.21) 1.16 (1.08-1.25) 1.14 (1.07-1.20)

Extended 1.18 (1.09-1.26) 1.15 (1.09-1.21) 1.17 (1.09-1.25) 1.14 (1.07-1.20)

Cardiopulmonary disease (50%)
Base 1.41 (1.27-1.56) 1.39 (1.28-1.50) 1.41 (1.27-1.56) 1.38 (1.27-1.49)

Original 1.30 (1.18-1.45) 1.27 (1.17-1.38) 1.30 (1.18-1.45) 1.27 (1.17-1.37)

Full 1.28 (1.15-1.42) 1.25 (1.15-1.35) 1.28 (1.15-1.42) 1.24 (1.14-1.34)

Extended 1.30 (1.17-1.44) 1.25 (1.16-1.36) 1.29 (1.17-1.43) 1.25 (1.15-1.35)

Cardiovascular disease (43%)
Base

1.47 (1.32-1.65) 1.47 (1.35-1.60) 1.46 (1.31-1.63) 1.46 (1.34-1.59)

Original 1.36 (1.22-1.52) 1.36 (1.25-1.48) 1.36 (1.22-1.52) 1.35 (1.24-1.47)

Full 1.34 (1.20-1.49) 1.33 (1.22-1.45) 1.33 (1.19-1.48) 1.32 (1.21-1.43)

Extended 1.35 (1.21-1.51) 1.34 (1.23-1.46) 1.34 (1.20-1.50) 1.33 (1.22-1.44)

Respiratory disease (7%)
Base

1.07 (0.80-1.42) 0.94 (0.76-1.17) 1.09 (0.82-1.45) 0.95 (0.76-1.18)

Original 1.00 (0.76-1.33) 0.83 (0.67-1.04) 1.01 (0.76-1.34) 0.85 (0.68-1.05)

Full 0.96 (0.72-1.27) 0.81 (0.65-1.01) 0.99 (0.74-1.31) 0.82 (0.66-1.03)

Extended 0.98 (0.74-1.30) 0.82 (0.65-1.02) 1.00 (0.76-1.33) 0.83 (0.66-1.03)

Lung cancer (8%)
Base 1.23 (0.96-1.57) 1.63 (1.35-1.97) 1.21 (0.95-1.54) 1.62 (1.34-1.95)

Original 1.02 (0.80-1.29) 1.36 (1.13-1.65) 1.02 (0.80-1.30) 1.36 (1.12-1.64)

Full 0.99 (0.78-1.26) 1.32 (1.09-1.60) 0.98 (0.77-1.25) 1.31 (1.09-1.59)

Extended 1.00 (0.79-1.28) 1.33 (1.10-1.61) 0.99 (0.78-1.26) 1.32 (1.09-1.60)

Other cancers (27%)
Base

1.18 (1.03-1.36) 1.15 (1.03-1.28) 1.17 (1.02-1.34) 1.14 (1.02-1.26)

Original 1.14 (0.99-1.30) 1.10 (0.99-1.23) 1.13 (0.98-1.29) 1.10 (0.99-1.22)

Full 1.14 (1.00-1.31) 1.10 (0.99-1.23) 1.13 (0.98-1.29) 1.09 (0.98-1.21)

Extended 1.14 (0.99-1.31) 1.10 (0.99-1.22) 1.12 (0.98-1.29) 1.08 (0.97-1.21)

Source: Adapted from Health Effects Institute, Special Report: Reanalysis of the Harvard Six
Cities Study and the American Cancer Society of Particulate Air Pollution and
Mortality , Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA, July 2000.
a RRs were calculated for a change in the pollutant of interest equal to the difference in mean
concentrations between the most polluted city and the least polluted city; in the ACS study,
this difference for ine particles was 24.5 μg/m 3 , and for sulfate it was 19.9 μg/m 3 .