A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 257

Table D1b. (continued)

BN Node and Variable Name b

B1: Bear-
human
Interactions

Time
Period a

Sea Ice Data
Source

R1: Oil and
Gas Activity

J1: Tourism J: Shipping

Polar Basin Convergent Ecoregion

year -10 Satellite data decreased decreased decrease same_as_now

year 0 Satellite data same_as_now same_as_now no_change same_as_now

year 25 GCM minimum increased same_as_now no_change same_as_now

year 50 GCM minimum increased increased increase increased

year 75 GCM minimum increased increased increase increased

year 95 GCM minimum increased increased increase increased

year 25 Ensemble mean increased same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now

year 50 Ensemble mean increased increased increase increased

year 75 Ensemble mean increased increased increase increased

year 95 Ensemble mean increased increased increase increased

year 25 GCM maximum increased same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now

year 50 GCM maximum increased increased increase increased

year 75 GCM maximum increased increased increase increased

year 95 GCM maximum increased increased increase increased

BN Node and Variable Name b

Time
Period a

R4: hydrocarbons/
Oil Spill

T1:
Contaminants

E: Intentional
Takes

T: Parasites
and Disease

T2: Predation

Seasonal Ice Ecoregion

year -10 same_as_now reduced decreased not not

year 0 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now not not

year 25 same_as_now elevated decreased influential not

year 50 same_as_now elevated decreased influential influential

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 25 same_as_now elevated decreased influential not

year 50 same_as_now elevated decreased influential influential

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 25 same_as_now elevated decreased influential not

year 50 same_as_now elevated decreased influential influential

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

Archipelago Ecoregion

year -10 same_as_now reduced same_as_now not not

year 0 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now not not

year 25 same_as_now elevated same_as_now not not

year 50 same_as_now elevated increased influential not

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated same_as_now influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 25 same_as_now elevated same_as_now not not

year 50 same_as_now elevated increased influential not

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated same_as_now influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 25 same_as_now elevated same_as_now not not

year 50 same_as_now elevated increased influential not