A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 256

Table D1b. Input Data Values for Nodes J1, B1, R1, J, R4, T1, E, T, and T2 Used in the Bayesian Network Polar Bear
Population Stressor Model for Each of Four Polar Bear Ecoregions a

BN Node and Variable Name b

B1: Bear-
human
Interactions

Time
Period a

Sea Ice Data
Source

R1: Oil and
Gas Activity J1: Tourism J: Shipping

Seasonal Ice Ecoregion

year -10 Satellite data decreased decreased no_change same_as_now

year 0 Satellite data same_as_now same_as_now no_change same_as_now

year 25 GCM minimum increased increased no_change increased

year 50 GCM minimum increased increased no_change increased

year 75 GCM minimum increased increased no_change increased

year 95 GCM minimum increased increased no_change increased

year 25 Ensemble mean increased increased no_change increased

year 50 Ensemble mean increased increased no_change increased

year 75 Ensemble mean increased increased no_change increased

year 95 Ensemble mean increased increased no_change increased

year 25

GCM maximum increased increased no_change increased

year 50 GCM maximum increased increased no_change increased

year 75 GCM maximum increased increased no_change increased

year 95 GCM maximum increased increased no_change increased

Archipelago Ecoregion

year -10 Satellite data decreased increased no_change same_as_now

year 0 Satellite data same_as_now same_as_now no_change same_as_now

year 25 GCM minimum increased same_as_now no_change same_as_now

year 50 GCM minimum increased increased no_change same_as_now

year 75 GCM minimum increased increased increase increased

year 95 GCM minimum increased increased increase increased

year 25 Ensemble mean increased same_as_now no_change same_as_now

year 50 Ensemble mean increased increased no_change same_as_now

year 75 Ensemble mean increased increased increase same_as_now

year 95 Ensemble mean increased increased increase increased

year 25 GCM maximum increased same_as_now no_change same_as_now

year 50 GCM maximum increased increased no_change same_as_now

year 75 GCM maximum increased increased increase same_as_now

year 95 GCM maximum increased increased increase same_as_now

Polar Basin Divergent Ecoregion

year -10 Satellite data decreased decreased decrease same_as_now

year 0 Satellite data same_as_now same_as_now no_change same_as_now

year 25 GCM minimum increased increased increase increased

year 50 GCM minimum increased increased increase increased

year 75 GCM minimum decreased increased increase increased

year 95 GCM minimum decreased increased decrease increased

year 25 Ensemble mean increased increased increase increased

year 50 Ensemble mean increased increased increase increased

year 75 Ensemble mean same_as_now increased increase increased

year 95 Ensemble mean decreased increased decrease increased

year 25 GCM maximum increased increased increase increased

year 50 GCM maximum increased increased increase increased

year 75 GCM maximum same_as_now increased increase increased

year 95 GCM maximum same_as_now increased decrease increased