A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 255

Table D1a. (continued)

Node and Variable Name b

B:
Foraging
habitat
Quantity
Change
(%)

C:
Foraging
habitat
Absence
Change

N:
Shelf
Distance
Change c
(km)

S1:
Foraging
habitat
Character

R3:
Alternative
Prey
Availability

R2:
Relative
Ringed Seal
Availability

F:
Alternative
Regions
Available

Sea Ice Data
Source Time Period a

year 95 GCM minimum -24.30 2.3 NA same_as_now decrease decrease no

year 25 Ensemble mean -2.35 0.2 NA more_optimal same_as_now increase no

year 50 Ensemble mean -11.93 1.5 NA more_optimal increase increase no

year 75 Ensemble mean -20.06 2.4 NA same_as_now increase decrease no

year 95 Ensemble mean -22.16 2.5 NA same_as_now decrease decrease no

year 25 GCM maximum -0.08 0.0 NA more_optimal same_as_now increase no

year 50 GCM maximum -3.43 0.0 NA more_optimal increase increase no

year 75 GCM maximum -18.02 2.7 NA more_optimal increase increase no

year 95 GCM maximum -20.85 2.3 NA same_as_now decrease decrease no

Polar Basin Divergent Ecoregion

year -10 Satellite data 5.33 -0.3 -83 more_optimal same_as_now increase yes

year 0 Satellite data 0.00 0.0 0 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now yes

year 25 GCM minimum -9.76 0.9 183 less_optimal same_as_now decrease yes

year 50 GCM minimum -32.16 2.1 1359 less_optimal same_as_now decrease yes

year 75 GCM minimum -41.28 2.9 2006 less_optimal same_as_now decrease yes

year 95 GCM minimum -46.30 3.2 2177 less_optimal same_as_now decrease yes

year 25 Ensemble mean -5.25 0.7 114 same_as_now same_as_now decrease yes

year 50 Ensemble mean -19.31 1.8 631 less_optimal same_as_now decrease yes

year 75 Ensemble mean -31.68 2.6 1034 less_optimal same_as_now decrease yes

year 95 Ensemble mean -35.77 3.0 1275 less_optimal same_as_now decrease yes

year 25 GCM maximum -5.12 0.7 42 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now yes

year 50 GCM maximum -15.68 2.2 234 less_optimal same_as_now decrease yes

year 75 GCM maximum -24.23 2.4 233 less_optimal same_as_now decrease yes

year 95 GCM maximum -21.33 2.7 315 less_optimal same_as_now decrease yes

Polar Basin Convergent Ecoregion

year -10 Satellite data 4.34 -0.5 -41 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now no

year 0 Satellite data 0.00 0.0 0 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now no

year 25 GCM minimum 2.65 0.3 26 more_optimal same_as_now increase no

year 50 GCM minimum -4.60 0.9 831 same_as_now increase same_as_now no

year 75 GCM minimum -23.19 1.9 1542 less_optimal decrease decrease no

year 95 GCM minimum -30.33 2.5 1478 less_optimal decrease decrease no

year 25 Ensemble mean -2.76 0.7 83 more_optimal increase increase no

year 50 Ensemble mean -13.85 2.0 464 same_as_now increase increase no

year 75 Ensemble mean -22.65 3.0 847 less_optimal decrease same_as_now no

year 95 Ensemble mean -25.02 3.3 795 less_optimal decrease decrease no

year 25 GCM maximum -6.68 0.9 109 more_optimal increase increase no

year 50 GCM maximum -26.76 2.9 334 same_as_now increase increase no

year 75 GCM maximum -34.08 3.5 434 less_optimal increase increase no

year 95 GCM maximum -34.88 3.7 510 less_optimal decrease same_as_now no

a Time period is expressed as the central year in each decade for which projections were made.
b Units of measure at each node are B, percentile change from present in the annual sum of habitat quantity; C, difference between present
and future number of ice-free months; N, difference between present and future distance between the edge of the continental shelf and the
edge of the pack ice; and discrete states for all other nodes. See Figure 3 for allowable states at each node.
c NA stands for not applicable; shelf distance change only applies to the polar basin ecoregions.