A Bayesian Network Modeling Approach to Forecasting the 21st Century Worldwide Status of Polar Bears - Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications - page 258

Table D1b. (continued)

BN Node and Variable Name b

Time
Period a

R4: hydrocarbons/
Oil Spill

T1:
Contaminants

E: Intentional
Takes

T: Parasites
and Disease T2: Predation

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated increased influential not

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

Polar Basin Divergent Ecoregion

year -10 same_as_now reduced decreased not not

year 0 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now not not

year 25 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 50 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 25 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 50 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 25 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 50 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

Polar Basin Convergent Ecoregion

year -10 same_as_now reduced same_as_now not not

year 0 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now not not

year 25 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now not not

year 50 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 25 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now not not

year 50 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 25 same_as_now same_as_now same_as_now not not

year 50 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 75 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

year 95 increased_occurrence elevated decreased influential influential

a Time period is expressed as the central year in each decade for which projections were made.
b Units of measure are discrete states at each node. See Figure 3 for allowable states at each node.