Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Tabl e 6. 1
Potential loss of
area, population and land use
due to Sea Level Rise (
SLR
)
over Alexandria Governorate,
in the Nile Delta of Egypt
Attribute
SLR 0.5 m
SLR 1.0 m
SLR 2.0 m
Area
51
62
76
Population
50
64
79
Agriculture
93
95
100
Industry
65
70
90
Residential
45
50
75
Municipal services
30
50
70
Commercial areas
20
25
35
Community facility
15
20
30
Archeological sites
48
55
70
Tabl e 6. 2
Population expected to be displaced and loss of employment
due to SLR in
Alexandria Governorate
2000
2010
2030
2050
Year
(SLR
D
5cm)
(SLR
D
18 cm)
(SLR
D
30 cm)
(SLR
D
50 cm)
Area at risk (km
2
)
32
144
190
317
Population to be
displaced
57
252
545
1;512
0;336
1;370
3;205
8;812
(a) Agriculture
(b) Tourism
1;359
5;737
12;323
33;919
(c) Industry
5;754
25;400
54;936
151;200
Total loss of employment
7;449
32;509
70;465
195;443
Tabl e 6. 3
Areas (km
2
) population displaced and employment losses due to a SLR of 0.50 m in
various districts of Port Said Governorate, Egypt
Losses
El Shark
El Arab
El Monakh
El Dawahy
Port Fouad
Total
Beach area
0.426
0.377
7.419
-
13.039
21.26
Urban area
0.034
0.044
0.339
-
0.046
0.46
Industry area
0.015
0.002
0.018
-
0.016
0.05
Agriculture area
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
0.000
0.000
Aquaculture area
0.000
0.000
0.000
-
0.024
0.024
Transport network
(km)
10.0
7.0
3.0
-
3.0
23.0
Population
(persons)
3,968
16,699
6,503
-
1,021
28,191
Employment (jobs)
953
4,000
1,558
-
248
6,759
After El-Raey et al. (
1999
)
loss of about 200,000 jobs by 2050, if no action were taken. Work is in progress to
identify and assess vulnerable sectors in each district of the governorate.
Tab les
6.3
and
6.4
show the results of the impact of SLR on the other two most
important cities in the coastal zone of Egypt, Rosetta and Port Said, respectively
(El-Raey et al.
1999
). Again, results indicate serious impact and calls for advanced
planning and adaptation measures.
The most important limitation on these results is the availability of recent land-
use data and reliable topographic and socio-economic data. However, upgrading
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