Egypt: Land Degradation Issues with Special Reference to the Impact of Climate Change - Combating Desertification in Asia, Africa and the Middle East - page 115

4.3 Sea Level Rise

Egypt's Mediterranean Coast is very vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise
(SLR). A 0.3 m SLR would be sufficient to increase flood frequency from the
present estimate of one in ten year flood to ten times a year. Several studies on
the vulnerability of Alexandria, the second largest city in Egypt, indicated that a
0.3 m SLR in Alexandria would inundate large parts of the city. This would result
in land and property losses worth tens of billions of dollars, including damage to
infrastructure, over half a million inhabitants to be relocated and approximately
70,000 lost jobs (El-Raey et al. 1999 ). Furthermore, with SLR exceeding 0.5 m over
this century, that is predicted to result in devastating impact on Alexandria with an
economic loss estimated of over US$ 35 billion including loss of 30 % of the total
area and 195,000 jobs, and relocation of more than 2 million people.
Several general analyses of the potential impact of sea level rise on the Nile
Delta coast have been carried out (e.g. Sestini 1989 ;El-Raey 1993 ; CRI and Delft
Hydraulics 1992 ; Stanley and Warne 1993 ). As a result, areas of high vulnerability
in the Nile delta and possible socio-economic impacts have been generally defined.
These high-risk areas include parts of Alexandria and Behaira governorates, Port
Said and Damietta governorates, and Suez governorate. In addition, several other
smaller areas, such as those near Matruh and north of Lake Bardaweel, have also
been identified.
Accurate, up to date information on elevation, land use and socio-economic
characteristics is still needed for an integrated assessment of possible impacts.
As a result, a complete quantitative, high resolution analysis and assessment has
not yet been finalized. However, a pilot quantitative analysis, using a geographic
information system and land use classification obtained by remote sensing over the
governorate of Alexandria, has been carried out, (El-Raey et al. 1995 ).
Satellite images of the governorate were used by the present authors to obtain in-
formation on land use in the coastal area and were supplemented by available ground
survey data. A geographic information system (GIS) was built and checked with
information based on available ground data. The GIS includes data layers on land
use/land cover, topography, and population density distribution over Alexandria.
A scenario of sea level rise (SLR) of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 m, over the next century was
assumed. Analysis of the GIS data for the three scenarios indicates the capability of
the technique to map vulnerable areas and to quantitatively assess vulnerable sectors
in each area. Table 6.1 presents gross percentage loss for each scenario of SLR.
Tab le 6.1 illustrates that, if no protection action is taken, the agricultural sector
will be the most severely impacted (a loss of over 90 %), followed by the industrial
sector (loss of 65 %), and the tourism sector (loss of 55 %) due to a SLR of 0.5 m.
Estimation of the socio-economic impact due to loss of land and jobs is possible
using employment statistics relevant to each sector and taking future growth rates
into consideration. Results of the impact on population and loss of employment
are shown in Table 6.2 . It is estimated that a SLR of 0.5 m in the governorate of
Alexandria alone would cause a displacement of almost 1.5 million people and the