Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 6.13
Electric bicycles. E-bikes and bicycles remain popular.
Source
: Carlos Pardo.
Two of the dilemma scenarios are outlined in more detail below, illustrating what a continuation
of the current, largely BAU, trajectory ('High Motorisation') might involve, and also a different
policy trajectory reflecting high investment and high environmental stewardship ('Good
Intentions'). The other two futures (Scenario 2 and Scenario 3) seem to be less suitable for
development in Jinan, as one might involve a breakdown of society in the city ('City Failure')
and the other is based on severe limitations on migration and growth in the city ('Plan B'),
and this would be politically unacceptable. When developing future scenarios with repre-
sentatives from the city authorities, it is advisable to focus on positive futures rather than the
less attractive alternatives, but it should always be remembered that uncertainties and weak
decision-making may lead towards undesirable futures. Again the scenario alternatives were
developed and selected in conjunction with planners and government officials from Jinan and
Shandong province.
Scenario 1: 'high motorisation'
The 'high motorisation' scenario (S1) assumes substantial levels of increased motorisation,
along the lines of the 'North American' model. Scenario 1 is based on a high level of migration,
development and transport (mainly highway) investment, but also lower levels of environmental
stewardship. The conventional petrol car dominates, with little or no attempt to constrain
