Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Migration: High
S.1: 'High
Motorisation'
S.4: 'Good
Intentions'
Largely a projection of current trends (BAU scenario)
High GDP growth rate, high migration and population
growth; less skilled labour
Low innovation in sustainability
Aspirations towards high materialist, consumptive
lifestyles
Less skilled labour
Strong motor industry, mainly petrol and diesel vehicles
High motorisation, with limited vehicle efficiencies
Growth in car distance
Reduction in public transport and walk, cycle distance
mode shares
High GDP growth rate; high migration and population
growth; high education and skilled labour
High innovation in sustainability
Aspirations towards sustainable lifestyles, and also
materialism
Limited motorisation, very high vehicle efficiencies
Strong motor industry, mainly low emission vehicles;
strong public transport manufacturing industry
Some reduced in BAU growth in car distance
Increase in public transport and walk, cycle distance
mode shares
Urban structure supports public transport, walking
and cycling
Environmental
Stewardship: Low
Environmental
Stewardship: High
S.2: 'City Failure'
S.3: 'Plan B'
Lower GDP growth rate; lower migration and population
growth; less skilled labour
Low innovation in sustainability
Aspirations towards high materialist lifestyles, but lower
income levels
Less skilled labour
Weaker motor industry, mainly petrol and diesel vehicles
Reduced motorisation, still with limited vehicle
efficiencies
Reduced growth in car distance
Reduction in public transport and walk, cycle distance
mode shares (but less than Scenario 1)
Lower GDP growth rate; lower migration, and population
growth; high education and skilled labour
High innovation in sustainability
Aspirations towards sustainable lifestyles, and lower
consumption levels
Weak motor industry, mainly low emission vehicles;
strong public transport manufacturing industry
Very limited motorisation, high vehicle efficiencies
Much reduced growth in car distance
Increase in public transport and walk, cycle distance
mode shares, short travel distances and local lifestyles
Urban structure supports public transport, walking
and cycling
Migration: Low
Figure 6.14
Scenario matrix
traffic growth, and few gains are made in vehicle efficiencies. There are no road pricing
mechanisms and public transit investment is low. To a certain extent, the current policy
approach in Jinan has already superseded this approach, with a relatively high level of current
and planned public transport investment. However, it is useful within the scenario analysis to
consider likely impacts of high investment in road building and low effectiveness of fuel
efficiency policies, which are often part of the route to high motorisation, and indeed there
are parts of this in the current approach in Jinan.
The targets and budgetary CO2 analyses are shown in
Table 6.7
and
Figure 6.15
. Within
this scenario, transport CO2 emissions rise from 1.42 million tonnes CO2 (MtCO2) in 2005
to 16.27 MtCO2 in 2030 - this represents over a tenfold increase. These assumptions are
representative of a high level of motorisation, moving from 72 vehicles/1,000 population (2005)
to 590/1,000 population (2030), around an 8 per cent growth per annum in motorisation
(2000-2030). This would result in a very high level of motorisation, nearly reaching current
USlevels (675/1,000 population) in 20 years. The result would be large increase in per person
