Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
population. This is projected to reach 31 per cent by 2050, leading to a pension problem for
the Chinese government, and this may reduce China's ability to compete economically in the
future. This will also represent challenges to the future transport system in terms of different
requirements and abilities in accessing activities. Ageing will affect household structure and
there are uncertainties in terms of household formation and urbanisation rates, and likely impacts
on transport infrastructure requirements and CO2 emissions (He, 2010). China's urbanisation
will continue due to the increase of the existing urban population and rural-to-urban migration.
The twelfth 5-Year Plan suggests an urbanisation rate of 51.5 per cent by 2015. Jinan's
population growth rate has been relatively slow, averaging 0.28 per cent for the past 5 years
and is planned to be less than 0.5 per cent for the next 5 years. Jinan's population within the
metropolitan area is expected to reach 6.2 million and an urbanisation rate of 75 per cent by
2015 (Jinan Municipal Government, 2011). Urbanisation in Jinan is rapidly growing, but relies
to a certain extent on infrastructure upgrading to improve people's living standards, happiness
and social harmony (Jinan Municipal Government, 2011).
In terms of environmental goals, China's twelfth 5-Year Plan devotes considerable attention
to energy and climate change and establishes a new set of targets and policies for 2011-2015.
While some of the targets are largely in line with previous publications, other aspects represent
more dramatic moves to reduce energy consumption, promote low carbon energy sources and
restructure China's economy. Key targets include:
•
16 per cent reduction in energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP);
•
Increasing non-fossil energy to 11.4 per cent of total energy use from the current 8.3 per
cent;
•
17 per cent reduction in carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of GDP).
There is increasing international pressure for addressing GHG reductions in China,
particularly on an absolute reduction basis, but perhaps this is a Western agenda rather than
something that will be taken up in China. The intensity targets allow economic growth, and
unless GDP growth greatly outweighs the growth in transport CO2 emissions, there is still
also a need to decarbonise the transport sector to a large degree. Shandong has established
its energy intensity target for 2015 as 17 per cent, higher than the national target; Jinan will
follow the province's 17 per cent target.
The two key uncertainties are used to generate the two axes in a classic scenario dilemma
(
Figure 6.14
). There are different potential scenarios for Jinan according to migration rate and
population growth and the level of environmental stewardship. There are also important issues
around path dependency (Mahoney, 2000; Arthur, 1994), wherein social phenomena are
explained in terms of historical events influencing the future. These path dependency issues
are usually viewed as negative, but can in theory also be positive, and are evident in all the
scenarios. Scenario 1 (BAU), for example, suffers from adverse 'lock-in' to car and oil
dependency as investment is made in a motorised society. A high motorisation level and high
transport CO2 emission level is contingent on earlier road building, an investment in car
manufacturing, the development of a dispersed urban form, and poor investment in public
transport, walking and cycling. Any later development of public transport is effectively
foreclosed, or at least greatly inhibited, as a supportive urban form has not been developed.
8
Thus, the resultant travel behaviour is 'inefficient' in CO2 emission terms. In contrast, Scenario
4 aims to use path dependency in a more positive fashion, gradually building up the investment
in public transport to provide a detailed network across the city, developing walking and
cycling facilities, and supporting this with a compact urban form.
