Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 6.6 Trends and uncertainties
Trends and uncertainties
Ranking
Economy and governmental
Economic growth rate (GDP)
Political stability (national and local)
Globalisation, international trade and movement
Income levels, income inequality
Employment and manufacturing sector growth, including motor vehicle
manufacturing
Tourism and leisure industry growth
Socio-demographics
Rural to urban migration and population growth
**1
Age profile (influenced by 'one child' policy and ageing population)
Household size
Aspirations and culture - 'Western consumption' or 'other' model
Social equality, social welfare, urban-rural balance
Social stability
Technologies
Technological innovation
Clean vehicle technologies
Energy and power supply - renewable sources
Environmental
Climate change
Major environmental shocks - earthquake, drought, flooding, water supply
Improvement in environmental quality
Urban issues and transport planning
Environmental issues - stewardship, extent of 'seriousness' given to them in
policy making and implementation
**2
Urban design quality
Extent of urban sprawl
Aspirations towards sustainable travel, level of investment in public transport,
walking and cycling
Extent of car dependency
Inter-city movements
more sustainable growth by prioritising more equitable wealth distribution, increased domestic
consumption, and improved social infrastructure and social safety nets. China requires local
governments to set a lower target for economic growth, and Jinan's GDP growth rate is assumed
at 11 per cent annually for the next 5 years, which is higher than the national average growth
rate (Jinan Municipal Government, 2011). In addition, in Jinan and in China, economic
development has entered a transition period, perhaps increasingly dependent on domestic
demand, innovation-driven industries and modern services.
Population projections are an important component of CO2 emission scenarios. China is
likely to continue its family planning policy and has set a national population target of 1.39
billion by 2015. There are other important demographic issues, as the Chinese population
is rapidly ageing due to a lower mortality rate and the one child policy. The country had
169 million people over age 60 in 2010, comprising 12.5 per cent of the country's total
 
 
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