Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
GDP growth
Governance - public
acceptability
Environmental
Governance -
deliverability
Social inclusion
Technological
change
S1. BAU Motorisation
S2. Low Carbon Mobility
S3. Active Transport
S4. Sustainable Transport
Figure 5.18
The possibility space
penetration rates are not easy to influence. There are few environmental benefits, as any gains
in CO2 emissions per vehicle are offset by increased mobility, or social benefits, as those
without a car remain disadvantaged. The policy trajectory requires strong governmental legis-
lation and enforcement, such as in mandatory lower emission motor vehicle standards and the
acceptance and use of alternative fuels. The motor manufacturers would need to produce lower
emission motor vehicles for the mass market, and substantial new patterns of consumer
behaviour would be required so that these low carbon vehicles are bought.
Scenario 3: Increased active travel 
In this scenario, a major change to present trends is
assumed with a small increase in the distance walked and a more than doubling of the distance
cycled. There is also a large increase in rail use and small increase in bus use. Critically there
are substantial reductions in motorcycle use and only a slight increase in car use to 2030.
There would still be a 300 per cent rise in transport CO2 emissions from 1990 levels, and the
per capita emissions levels are 0.49 tonnes.
The scenario is designed to be acceptable to the public, as more active travel is generally
viewed positively, but it may perform less well against economic requirements (motor manu-
facturing is not supported to the same degree). This limitation is debatable, as there could be
major employment possible around the emerging sustainable transport infrastructure, including
the building of Metro, rail, bus rapid transit and cycling facilities. There is little requirement
for technological change in private vehicles, but it is expected that environmental and social
benefits are realised with much less reliance on car-based travel. Such a future would require
a much greater prioritisation for pedestrians, cyclists and the use of cycle rickshaws and clean
(CNG) auto rickshaws. There would need to be prioritisation of roadspace for non-motorised
travel and effectively enforced restrictions on private car travel to ensure active travel is the
safest and most convenient, pleasant, and quickest way to reach destinations. Reallocation of
