Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
imperative' (Giddens, 2009). For the basis of our analysis, we take this 0.5 tC per capita figure
as the 'best target' for the transport sector in Delhi as in all other countries. There are, of
course, important issues around aiming for an equitable target internationally, with little else
in 'consumption' terms as equitable across the world. But for the basis of comparing relative
emissions and working towards broadly equitable futures, this is taken as a broad benchmark.
Despite the BAU projections and India's limited 'legal' requirements, much can be done to
reduce transport CO2 emissions in Delhi. The transport scenario analysis presented here draws
mainly on the VIBAT India and Delhi scoping study, including discussions with IIT Delhi,
other experts in Delhi and work from Wilbur Smith Associates (2008). There are a large
potential number of trajectories for Delhi to follow in terms of future transport strategy. A
number of major trends and uncertainties are evident in Delhi that can affect or indeed shape
the future scenarios in transport. These trends include economic issues such as the GDP growth
rate; the extent of globalisation; trade with the rest of the world and domestically; growth in
manufacturing, employment and leisure sectors; technological progress; socio-demographic
issues such as demographic change and rural to urban migration; cultural aspirations; and
social inclusion. In addition there are environmental issues such as the extent and geographic
impact of climate change, the level of protection given to the environment and urban and rural
life, the level of technological change, and also governance issues such as the framework and
effectiveness of governmental organisations and the role and influence of civil society.
Five of these key issues are used to represent the future 'possibility space' as a 'multilemma'
- broadly based on the three pillars of sustainability, but also including technological issues
and considering governance issues in terms of potential deliverability and public acceptability,
as shown in
Figure 5.18
.
Four scenarios are mapped against these six dimensions to show
their different characteristics
A description of the core scenarios is given below:
Scenario 1: BAU
This future is an extension of existing trends over the next 20 years. There
is some investment in public transport, limited change in the efficiency of the car stock and
in the use of alternative fuels. There is a large projected growth in traffic, with an approximate
700 per cent increase in CO2 emissions on 1990 levels. The scenario involves little technological
change, and is likely to perform poorly against environmental, social inclusion objectives. In
the long run, it may not be effective in delivering GDP growth. It is, however, easily delivered
politically (there is little policy change relative to the current context). The scenario is ultimately
not acceptable to the public as the adverse impacts on the built environment, environment and
economy become evident over time.
Scenario 2: Low carbon mobility
This scenario relies on an ambitious implementation of
new vehicle technologies, including low-emission vehicles, alternative fuels and smaller vehicle
types.There is also an increase in rail use. Mobility levels increase, but much of it is carried
out in clean vehicles. This would lead to an increase of over 500 per cent in CO2 emissions
on 1990 levels, and a per capita level of 0.76 tonnes. The scenario is designed to perform
well against economic objectives (there is a new market in low-emission vehicles) and to be
acceptable to the public (mobility growth). Even the progress against economic goals may be
less than envisaged, as Delhi becomes highly motorised and congested, and a less attractive
city to live and work in. There may be difficulties in political implementation, as clean vehicle
