Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Most substantial directions of developments connected with answers to these
questions include, in particular, the following:
(1) Regional problems of ecodynamics. Of primary importance here are studies of
the problems of power supply, reconstruction of ecosystems, recovery of
human health, and special phenomena such as droughts and forest
fires al local
and regional levels. In this connection, an integration of physics, chemistry and
biology with respective socio-economic aspects taken into account should play
a decisive role, which will help to make adequate decisions in ecological
policy. Studies of the dependence of forest
fires on climatic conditions can
serve as an illustration of possible approaches to the solution of such problems,
and the main goal is the prediction of anthropogenic wild
res.
(2) Analysis of economic ef
ciency. The complexity of quantitative assessments of
the economic ef
ciency of one or another ecological policy is determined by an
ambiguous choice of this policy with priorities taken into account. In this
context, of great importance is the use of simulation models of ecodynamics,
especially the models of changes in land supplies of carbon to assess the
response of carbon supplies in vegetation and soil to speci
c features of land
use and changes in land surface characteristics, to variations of the atmospheric
CO
2
content, and to climate. Solution of such problems will provide a more
reliable prediction of global trajectories of CO
2
emissions to the atmosphere.
(3) Possible consequences of global climate changes for forestry and agriculture
over the country territory. Analysis of such changes with various scenarios of
possible changes in global climate suggested the conclusion that in the case of
several scenarios, the impact on forestry and agriculture in the country will be
economically favorable. Partly, it is connected with the growth of forests
production (with a CO
2
concentration increase) and determined by capability
of forests to adapt for climate change. As for agriculture, according to avail-
able prognostic estimates for a long period, positive impact of the global
warming on agriculture in the country will be less economically favorable than
it follows from the earlier estimates.
(4)
Impact of UV solar radiation on human health. Intensive developments in this
direction are being carried out to study the impact of the lowering level of
biologically active UV solar radiation due to decreasing total ozone content in
the atmosphere on the agricultural production.
Talking risks assessments we mean at least 5-folds (5-levels) interpretation or
de
nition:
(1) theory of different kinds of risks;
(2) experimental studies of risks in conditions of natural and man-made disasters;
(3)
remote sensing application for risks determination (microwave radiometry
allows to obtain by practically direct way the risks assessments);
(4)
risks assessments in AIMS; and
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