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opinions were expressed by Corcoran (2005) in the Introduction to The Earth
Charter in Action. Therefore, the question whether a human can change climate
needs further studies (Borisov 2005).
Finally, preliminary conclusions drawn from the above are as follows:
the existing climate models cannot be used to make decisions and assess the risk
of accomplishing the anthropogenic scenarios;
the level of uncertainty of climate forecasts ca be reduced due to a broader
consideration in global models of interactive bonds in the NSS and mechanisms
of biotic regulation of the environment as well as improvement of the global
monitoring system; and
the use of hydrocarbon energy sources in the 21st century will not lead to a
catastrophic climate change if the Earth covers are preserved and the World
Ocean is protected from pollution.
9.8 Reducing Risks in Agriculture
9.8.1 Introduction
Uncertainty and risk are quintessential features of agricultural production. Main
sources of uncertainty and risk are connected with the causes which in
fl
uence on
agricultural production:
the amount and quality of output that will result from a given bundle of inputs
are typically not known with certainty, i.e., the production function is stochastic;
presence of uncontrollable elements, such as weather and absence reliable
prognosis of many agronomy processes;
price uncertainty is a standard attribute of agricultural activities;
technological uncertainty is always the cause of excided risk; and
policy uncertainty creates considerable risk for agricultural investments.
Unfortunately, basic rationality postulates in the agricultural risk are connected
with economic models. Technological and nature-oriented risks are studied least of
all. Decisions about environmental risks typically focus on the evaluation of con-
sequences, and estimates of consequences are complicated by uncertainty. Some
problems of environmental risks are discussed by Krapivin and Varotsos (2007,
2008). It is clear that agricultural risks are some fragment of policy decisions for
sustainable management that are based on the reasonable certain knowledge base
the effective use of which is possible in framework of GMNSS.
One of the main problems in framework of modern science is the estimation of
the biosphere survivability in the conditions of the increasing anthropogenic impact.
Such estimation can be realized by using the biosphere model. Well-known
attempts in direction of the synthesis of a global model give unsatisfactory results.
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