Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Introduced notations make it possible to write for each sub-system of the Aral
Sea basin the following traditional balance relationships:
For the zone of the Kara Kum canal
R
1
þ
X ¼ R
j
þ
R
d
þ
U
0
U
v
U
1
þ
U
2
þ
E
w
þ
E
0
þ
E
1
þ
E
2
For the zone of Amu Darya from the canal to Sarakamysh
R
0
þ
X ¼ R
1
þ
R
j
þ
U
0
U
v
U
1
þ
E
w
þ
E
0
þ
E
v
¼ R
2
þ
R
3
For Sarakamysh R
2
+ X = E
w
For the Aral Sea
X
þ
R
3
þ
R
S
¼ R
j
þ
U
0
U
1
U
v
þ
E
w
þ
E
v
þ
E
1
þ
E
2
þ
R
akk
U
w
;
where U
w
is the return sub-ground waters.
For the whole system, many scientists have studied relationships of the water
balance, with a consideration of the synoptic situation and of dependences of its
components both on each other and on other factors (Krapivin and Kondratyev
2002; Bortnik et al. 1994). The transition to dynamic equations requires additional
information about the character of correlations between the elements of the envi-
ronment, anthropogenic processes and hydrophysical constituents of the system.
Since there are irrevocable losses in the system (U
g
+U
2
), there should exist the
balancing branches of the hydrological cycle. Apparently, these branches exist in
the flows of moisture in the region, which, by their character, play a dual role. So,
for instance, Krapivin and Kondratyev (2002) considered a situation when a forced
irrigation of saline lands and takyrs was carried out on the eastern coastline of the
Caspian Sea at optimally chosen time moments. As it turned out, the resulting
additional evaporation according to mean-statistical synoptic scenario has improved
the hydrological situation in the Turan lowland, and with the forced precipitation it
was possible to restore the level of the Aral Sea during 10
12 years. Of course, such
calculations raise questions, but they show how to study and to search positive
forcings on the natural-anthropogenic system.
-
9.6 Risk Control in Cases of Natural Disasters
An optimization of the risk of insurance from natural disasters becomes every year a
more urgent problem, since economic losses increase and become practically poorly
predictable. For instance, the insurance payments only for destructions from the
hurricane Hugo in 1989 constituted 5 billion dollars exceeding by more than 50 %
maximum losses from the earlier natural catastrophes. However, 3 years layer the
insurance payment for losses from the hurricane Andrew exceeded the losses from
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