Operational Diagnostics, Estimation of the Scale of Damage and Aftermath Reduction of the Stressful Natural Processes - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 776

the hurricane Hugo almost 4 times. Examples of comparison of unexpectedly large
insurance losses grow in number.
The problem of risk control as a quantitative measure of NSS property to ensure
the habitat safety on a given territory is a complicated mathematical problem of
optimization which is successfully solved using logical-and-probabilistic methods
(Solozhentsev 2004) based on construction, solution, and study of LP-function of
risk and safety of the structural-complex systems. Boolean algebra and its combined
use with methods of numerical modeling of processes taking place in NSS is a
mathematical basis for these studies. The informative characteristic of such an
approach to evaluation of the risk of the occurrence of a natural catastrophe is
determined by accuracy of prediction of development of natural-anthropogenic
processes on a given territory and reliability of produced scenarios, which substitute
for individual elements of this forecast.
According to Solozhentsev (2004), to assess the ef

ciency of risk control, one
should use discrete multitudes of parameters {Z j }, which affect the ef ciency, and

the scale Y of the ef ciency indicator. In this case, an introduction of the goal

function F=N 1c + ed events

on the scale Y in the class j, and maximization of F make it possible to determine
the weights of factors affecting the ef

⇯ +N kc , where N jc is the number of correctly identi

ciency. The complexity of this problem is
determined by lack of reliable data on statistical characteristics of these factors.
Appearing difficulties can be overcome with the use of methods of assessing the
level of self-organization and self-regulation of natural systems (Ivanov-Rostovtsev
et al. 2001) and synergetics (Chernavsky 2004). In particular, the use of D-Self
theory gives a possibility to introduce a generalized characteristic of the NSS state
in the form of non-linear function

p , where

n i n

i

n 0 ¼ ʾ 0 , ʾ I , and n are NSS

parameters which meet three axioms:

i. discreteness of elements within and beyond NSS with their interaction;
ii. hierarchy of elements within and beyond NSS;
iii. contingency between discrete elements of hierarchy of the structure within the
system (

i Þ

ʾ i ) and beyond the system ðn in the form of dependence n 0 ¼

p

n i n

i

:

Synthesis of the D-Self model as applied to NSS is an individual problem and is
not considered here. We mention only that according to Ivanov-Rostovtsev et al.
(2001), the method of modeling the evolutionary dynamics of natural systems based
on D-Self technology has some features in common with the evolutionary modeling
technology (Bukatova and Makrusev 2003). In both cases the evolution of the
natural system is considered as a discrete process of a change of its states in some
parametric space. In the case considered, the economic indicators and social
infrastructure of the territory are made into a separate level of hierarchy of
parameters and considered as indicators of the risk ef

ciency. Other characteristics
of NSS functioning are considered as external parameters.
The frequency and intensity of natural disasters increase, which is well seen
from data in Figs. 7.3, 7.4 and 7.5 and Tables 7.5 and 9.22 . Respectively, economic