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concept of global
climate change is based on information on the secular change of the annual mean
global mean SAT that was calculated from the data of observations at the land
meteorological networks and ship observations of water temperature in the upper
layer of the World Ocean, as well as numerical modeling of SAT change during the
last one and a half century. Meanwhile, there is no doubt that the information
content of the notion of global mean SAT needs further analysis, and being cal-
culated from the data of observations, the SAT values are not only aggravated with
errors which are dif
As has been mentioned above, the prevailing
“
anthropogenic
”
ciently representative. On
the other hand, it is obviously that reliable results concerning climatic variability
can be obtained only by considering the 3D air temperature
cult to estimate, but also are insuf
fields and other climatic
parameters, that is, by analysis of climate variability on regional scales. In this
connection, substantiation of strategies of national and regional studies becomes
especially urgent.
The World Climate Conference (Moscow, 29 September
3 October 2003) has
stimulated the publication of a number of summarizing papers on the current studies
of global climate dynamics (Demirchian and Kondratyev 2004; Kondratyev and
Krapivin 2004a, b) with due regard to the earlier results (Kondratyev 1982;
Kondratyev and Moskalenko 1984; Kondratyev and Johannessen 1993). The
related key conclusion consists in establishing the presence of serious uncertainties
in results in the
-
fields of both empirical diagnostics and numerical climate
modeling. Of exclusive importance becomes adequate substantiation and ef
cient
realization of further developments in order to reduce the level of existing uncer-
tainties and to assess the reliability of global climate forecasts.
Planning of further efforts in the
field of global climate studies should be based
on the two international programmes: WCRP and IGBP. A new programme
COPES (Coordinated Observations and Prediction of the Earth System) approved
by the WCRP Joint Scienti
c Committee is aimed at substantiation of a new
strategy and goals of WCRP for the period 2005
2015 (COPES 2004), the
beginning of which coincides with the 25th anniversary of WCRP. As it is known,
two main goals of WCRP consist in assessing of the climate predictability and the
degree of anthropogenic impact on climate. Achievement of these goals should be
based on accomplishing the interdisciplinary studies of
-
the climatic system
“
atmosphere-hydrosphere-lithosphere-cryosphere-biosphere
”
in
fl
uenced by various
external
factors (including anthropogenic). Such studies should foresee,
in
particular:
observations of changes taking place in the climate system;
better understanding of the climate variability (mechanisms that determine this
variability) on regional scales;
assessment of substantial trends of regional and global climates;
development of numerical modeling methods able to simulate the spatial-tem-
poral variability in a wide range of scales and useful for operational predictions;
'
study of the climate system
s sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic forcings,
quantitative assessment of contributions of various forcings;
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