Ecoinformatics Problems of Global Climate Change - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 367

One of the key unresolved problems is the forecast of development of energy
production, increase of CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, and, respectively,
radiative forcing (RF). According to the Special IPCC-1994 Report, various sce-
narios determine a possible increase of CO 2 emissions by 2,100 within 2

60 GtC
(compared to the current value 7.5 GtC), that is, the obtained estimates differ by a
factor of 30 (with the use of all coal and natural gas resources known, the con-
centration of CO 2 can increase to 450 ppm).
Data in Table 5.3 illustrate possible changes of RF at different levels of CO 2
concentration stabilization in the atmosphere (the key unresolved problems consist,
however, in that what level of stabilization can be considered acceptable). In this
connection, special attention should be

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fixed on further development of global
carbon cycle studies, especially bearing in mind the unresolved problem of the “ lost

sink , which is partially determined, apparently, by the functioning of land eco-

systems as CO 2 sinks (on the whole, the role of the biospheric dynamics in the
formation of carbon cycle is far from being clear). Quite urgent (but also very
complicated) is the modeling of the nature-society interaction with long-term non-
linear changes of climate system taken into account. The concept of the risk as
applied to the problem of climate change moves up to the foreground.
As follows from the above-said and a huge amount of publications on the key
aspects of climate, one of the suf

”

ciently problematic tasks is a regulation at sci-

enti c, economic, and political levels of the problem brought forth by the Kyoto

Protocol. Perhaps, Barenbaum (2002, 2004) and Syvorotkin (2002) were first who
formulated its reconciliatory solution, practically explained the mechanisms of
closing global carbon cycle, and demonstrated its correlation with the cycles of
other GHGs and water. Semenov (2004) pointed to the important role of the phase
transitions of water, especially between liquid and solid ones. Masses of ice and
permafrost are buffers of temperature changes, playing the role of the climate-
forming function. Based on the model calculations, Semenov (2004) analyzed the
impact of climate change on the vertical distribution of temperature under condi-
tions of permafrost and determined the laws of the deep seasonal melting of the
continental permafrost with the growing greenhouse effect. The main conclusion is
that the vertical heat transfer and water phase transitions in the surface layer of the
northern-latitude lithosphere are climatic stabilizers.

Table 5.3 The level of CO 2 concentration stabilization, radiative forcing, and change of global
mean SAT with prescribed SAT sensitivity to a doubled CO 2 concentration within 1.5 4.5 ° C

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Level of CO 2 concentration stabil-
ization (ppm)

Radiative
forcing
(W/m 2 )

Change of global mean SAT ( ° C)

Minimum Middle Maximum

450 3.6 1.2 2.1 3.6

550 5.0 1.7 2.9 5.2

650 6.2 2.1 3.5 6.4

750 7.1 2.5 4.1 7.4