Ecoinformatics Problems of Global Climate Change - New Ecoinformatics Tools in Environmental Science: Applications and Decision-making - page 369

analysis of the nature and predictability of the annual change and interannual
variability of the climate system on regional and global scales to create the
scienti

￿

c basis for operational predictions of climatic variability in the interests
of sustainable development; and

detection of climate change and recognition of its causes (especially of
anthropogenic origin) in the context of the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (FCCC) and developments of IPCC.

￿

The 25th anniversary of WCRP is one of the stimuli to summarize the main
results and substantiate the perspectives of further developments in connection with
an appearance of new possibilities and advancements which include the solution of
complex interdisciplinary problems such as:

(a) Forecasting the climate system ' s dynamics on time scales of weeks — seasons —

years centuries considering possibilities of climate forecast for

centuries with the use of initial data for observed numerous parameters char-
acterizing the state of the climate system. Solution of the respective problems
requires not only radical improvement of the existing means of numerical cli-
mate modeling but,

— decades —

first of all, adequate substantiation of requirements to
observational data and substantial development of the global observational
system (these questions have been discussed in detail elsewhere (Kondratyev
1998a, b; Kondratyev and Cracknell 1998).
(b) Development of methods for numerical modeling of global ecodynamics and —
in this context climate dynamics with due regard to interactive chemical

processes, formation of global carbon cycle, land and ocean ecosystem
dynamics (Kondratyev and Krapivin 2003a, b; Kondratyev et al. 2003a, b, c, d).
In other words, the problem of global climate change should be considered as an
interactive component of global changes. One should also emphasize the sig-
ni

—

cance of the problems of risk connected with natural and anthropogenic
catastrophes (Kondratyev et al. 2006a, b), as well as unexpected in the

evolution of the global biosphere. The latter are illustrated by new (and
demanding further thorough investigation) supposition about an important role
of the

“ turns ”

fine structure of the spectrum of solar radiation (determined by the
presence of Fraunhofer lines) in evolution of the biosphere and, in particular, in
development of immunode ciency (Kondratyev et al. 2004a, b).

(c) Analysis of signi cance of an adequate understanding and reliable climate

forecasts from the viewpoint of provision of sustainable development (the
urgency of this problem has become especially acute in connection with the
rati

cation of the KP by Russia and, thus, its coming into effect).

cient coordination
of efforts within international programmes such as WCRP, IGBP, IHDP (socio-
economic aspects of global change), DIVERSITAS (International Biodiversity
Programme), and others.
The main goal of the present stage of the WCRP development is an adequate
(well coordinated) solution of the problems of obtaining needed observational data,

These general goals can be achieved only by means of an ef