Regional Impacts - Climate Resilient Agriculture for Ensuring Food Security - page 98

• Scandinavia and Scotland may be prime wine
producing areas.
• Much of Siberia will be a major cereal-
growing area.
• For even small temperature increases of 1-2°,
yields for rainfed agriculture could be reduced
by up to 50 % by 2020 (IPCC AR4).
With high confi dence, the IPCC ( 2007 ) pro-
jected that in southern Europe, climate change
would reduce crop productivity. In Central and
Eastern Europe, forest productivity was expected to
decline. In northern Europe, the initial effect of cli-
mate change was projected to increase crop yields.

5.5 Latin America

• Food security will be impacted in dry areas
where agricultural land will be subject to sali-
nization and erosion, reducing crop yields and
livestock productivity.
• Agricultural lands are very likely to be sub-
jected to 50 % desertifi cation and salinization
in some areas by the 2050s.
• Crop yields may be reduced in some areas,
although other areas may see increases.
• Habitat loss and species extinction in many
areas, including tropical forests, due to higher
temperatures and loss of groundwater, espe-
cially effecting indigenous communities.
• Low-lying areas will be impacted by sea-level
rise and extreme events, particularly those
associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) phenomenon which will affect the La
Plata estuary, coastal morphology, coral reefs
and mangroves, location of fi sh stocks, and
availability of drinking water.
Population growth continues, with consequences
for food demand. Because the economies of most
Latin American countries depend on agricultural
productivity, regional variation in crop yields is a
very relevant issue. Latin America has a large
variety of climate as a result of its geographical
confi guration. The region also has large arid and
semiarid areas. The climatic spectrum ranges
from cold, icy high elevations to temperate and
tropical climate. Glaciers have generally receded
in the past decades, and some very small glaciers
have already disappeared.
The Amazon, the Parana-Plata, and Orinoco
together carry into the Atlantic Ocean more than
30 % of the renewable freshwater of the world.
However, these water resources are poorly dis-
tributed, and extensive zones have very limited
water availability. There are stresses on water
availability and quality where low precipitation
or higher temperatures occur. Droughts that
are statistically linked to ENSO events generate
rigorous restrictions on the water resources of
many areas in Latin America.
As a result of high rainfall and humidity
caused by El Niño, several fungal diseases in

5.4.1 Adaptation and Vulnerability

To adapt to increasing water stress, the most
common and planned strategies remain supply-
side measures such as impounding rivers to
form instream reservoirs. However, new reser-
voir construction is being increasingly con-
strained in Europe by environmental regulations
and high investment costs. Other supply-side
approaches, such as wastewater reuse and desali-
nation, are being more widely considered, but
their popularity is dampened, respectively, by
health concerns in using wastewater and the
high energy costs of desalination. Some planned
demand-side strategies are also feasible, such
as household, industrial, and agricultural water
conservation, reducing leaky municipal and irri-
gation water systems and water pricing. Irrigation
water demand may be reduced by introducing
crops that are more suited to a changing climate.
An example of a unique European approach to
adapting to water stress is that regional- and
watershed-level strategies to adapt to climate
change are being incorporated into plans for
integrated water management, while national
strategies are being designed to fi t into existing
governance structures.
Adaptation procedures and risk manage-
ment practices for the water sector are being
developed in some countries and regions (e.g.,
the Netherlands, the UK, and Germany) that
recognize the uncertainty of projected hydro-
logical changes.