Regional Impacts - Climate Resilient Agriculture for Ensuring Food Security - page 99

maize, potato, wheat, and bean are observed in
Peru. Some positive impacts are reported for the
Argentinean Pampas region, where increases in
precipitation led to increases in crop yields close
to 38 % in soybean, 18 % in maize, 13 % in
wheat, and 12 % in sunflower. In the same
way, pasture productivity increased by 7 % in
Argentina and Uruguay.
Several studies using crop simulation models,
under climate change, for commercial crops,
were run for the Latin America region. The number
of people at risk of hunger under SRES emissions
scenario A2 is projected to increase by one
million in 2020, while it is projected that there
will be no change for 2050 and that the number
will decrease by four million in 2080.
With high confi dence, the IPCC ( 2007 ) projected
that in drier areas of Latin America, productivity
of some important crops would decrease and
livestock productivity decline, with adverse con-
sequences for food security. In temperate zones,
soybean yields were projected to increase.

the adaptive capacity of people to water stresses,
is provided by “self-organization” programs for
improving water supply systems in very poor
communities. The organization Business Partners
for Development Water and Sanitation Clusters
has been working on four “focus” plans in Latin
America: Cartagena (Colombia), La Paz and El
Alto (Bolivia), and some underprivileged districts
of Gran Buenos Aires (Argentina). Rainwater crop-
ping and storage systems are important features of
sustainable development in the semiarid tropics.
In particular, there is a joint project developed
in Brazil by the NGO Network Articulação no
Semi-Árido (ASA) Project, called the PIMC
Project, for one million cisterns to be installed
by civilian society in a decentralized manner.
The plan is to supply drinking water to one
million rural households in the perennial drought
areas of the Brazilian semiarid tropics (BSATs).
During the fi rst stage, 12,400 cisterns were built
by ASA and the Ministry of Environment of
Brazil and a further 21,000 were planned by the
end of 2004. In Argentina, national safe water
programs for local communities in arid regions
of Santiago del Estero Province installed ten rain-
water catchments and storage systems between
2000 and 2002.

5.5.1 Adaptation and Vulnerability

5.5.1.1 Past and Current Adaptation
The lack of adequate adaptation strategies to cope
with the hazards and risks of fl oods and droughts
in Latin American countries is due to low gross
national product (GNP), the increasing popula-
tion settling in vulnerable areas (prone to fl ood-
ing, landslides, or drought), and the absence of
the appropriate political, institutional, and tech-
nological frameworks. Nevertheless, some com-
munities and cities have organized themselves,
becoming active in disaster prevention. Many
poor inhabitants have been encouraged to relocate
from fl ood-prone areas to safer places. With the
assistance of IRDB and IDFB loans, they built
new homes, e.g., resettlements in the Paraná River
Basin of Argentina, after the 1992 fl ood. In some
cases, a change in environmental conditions
affecting the typical economy of the Pampas has
led to the introduction of new production activi-
ties through aquaculture, using natural regional
fi sh species such as pejerrey ( Odontesthes bonar-
iensis ). Another example, in this case related to

5.5.1.2 Adaptation: Practices, Options,
and Constraints
Water management policies in Latin America
need to be relevant and should be included as a
central point for adaptation criteria. This will
enhance the region's capability to improve its
management of water availability. Adaptation to
drier conditions in approximately 60 % of the
Latin America region will need large investments
in water supply systems. Managing trans-basin
diversions has been the solution in many areas
(e.g., Yacambu Basin in Venezuela, Alto Piura
and Mantaro Basin in Peru). Water conservation
practices, water recycling, and optimization of
water consumption have been recommended
during water-stressed periods. Problems in edu-
cation and public health services are fundamental
barriers to adaptation, for example, in the case of
extreme events (e.g., fl oods or droughts) mainly
in poor rural areas.