Regional Impacts - Climate Resilient Agriculture for Ensuring Food Security - page 97

• Grassland productivity in temperate Europe
will increase.
• Marine fi sh and shellfi sh to be affected in the
North Atlantic as shifts in species distribution
lead to increased production in northern
waters and marked decreases at the southern
edge of current ranges where there will be
increased stress due to pathogens. Aquaculture
will suffer local impacts due to organic wastes
and spread of pathogens.
Europe is well watered, with numerous perma-
nent rivers, many of which fl ow outwards from
the central part of the continent. It also has large
areas with low relief. The main types of climate
in Europe are maritime, transitional, continental,
polar, and Mediterranean; the major vegetation
types are tundra, coniferous taiga (boreal forest),
deciduous-mixed forest, steppe, and Mediterra-
nean. A relatively large proportion of Europe is
farmed, with about one-third of the area being
classifi ed as arable and cereals being the predom-
inant crops.
The sensitivity of Europe to climate change
has a distinct north-south gradient, with many
studies indicating that southern Europe will be
the more severely affected. The already hot and
semiarid climate of southern Europe is expected
to become still warmer and drier, threatening its
waterways, hydropower, agricultural production,
and timber harvests. In Central and Eastern
Europe, summer precipitation is projected to
decrease, causing higher water stress. Northern
countries are also vulnerable to climate change,
although in the initial stages of warming there
may be some benefi ts in terms of, for example,
increased crop yields and forest growth. Key
environmental pressures relate to biodiversity,
landscape, soil and land degradation, forest deg-
radation, natural hazards, water management,
and recreational environments. Most ecosystems
in Europe are managed or semi-managed; they
are often fragmented and understress from
pollution and other human impacts.
The predicted increase in extreme weather
events (e.g., spells of high temperature and
droughts) is projected to increase yield variability
(Jones et al. 2003 ) and to reduce average yield. In
particular, in the European Mediterranean region,

increases in the frequency of extreme climate events
during specifi c crop development stages (e.g., heat
stress during the fl owering period, rainy days
during sowing dates), together with higher rainfall
intensity and longer dry spells, are likely to reduce
the yield of summer crops (e.g., sunfl ower).
The expected warmer climate in northern
Europe will infl uence crop production, animal
husbandry and animal health, as well as the natural
fl ora and fauna. Crop yields will probably increase
in the Nordic region, and it may also be possible
to grow new crops for feed and food production.
In southern Europe, the warm climate will most
likely reduce crop productivity because of drought.
Many pests and diseases will also become more
prevalent on both animals and plants. People
should be prepared for this new situation to be able
to minimize the negative effects of climate change
while taking advantage of the warmer climate in
the region. Increased yields and new crops are
expected, but also more pest and disease problems.
It is important to increase collaboration in northern
Europe in the development of crop protection
systems in order to be prepared for new pests and
diseases of different crops.
Climate change is perhaps the biggest single
issue facing Europe and the rest of the world at the
start of the twenty-fi rst century. It is not certain
that what climatic conditions one has to face in
the coming years, as people are already experi-
encing the effects of climate change and there will
be more signifi cant changes to weather patterns as
average global temperatures rise. For many coun-
tries in Europe, summers will become hotter and
drier, while winter rainfall is likely to rise for
many. Warmer, wetter weather in the north will
encourage the growth of fungal diseases and
pests. Hotter and drier conditions in the south will
promote insect infestations accompanied by
potential for drought. Already, every 10 months, a
new agricultural pest enters Europe from the
south, moving north as conditions change.
If the projected 2 °C rise in average temperatures
comes to pass, then:
• Southern Europe may become too hot and arid

to grow its present crops.

• Northern Europe will be the best place to grow

typically Mediterranean crops.