Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Copenhagen
There were huge expectations of COP15 (Copenhagen) in 2009. New quantitative commit-
ments were expected to ensure a post-2012 agreement to seamlessly move on from the
Kyoto Protocol. Barack Obama had just become president of the USA. The EU had pre-
pared an unconditional 20 per cent reduction of emissions by 2020 on a 1990 baseline and
a conditional target rising to 30 per cent if other developed countries adopted binding tar-
gets. Most other developed countries had something to offer. Norway was willing to reduce
emissions by 40 per cent and Japan by 25 per cent from a 1990 baseline. Even the USA
offered a 17 per cent reduction on a 2005 baseline, which was an equivalent drop of 4 per
cent on a 1990 baseline. But the Copenhagen conference went horrible wrong. First the
Danish government had completely underestimated the interest in the conference and
provided a venue that was too small. So in the second week, when all the high-powered
country ministers and their support arrived, there was not enough room, meaning that many
NGOs were denied access to the negotiations. Second, it was clear that the negotiators were
not ready for the arrival of the ministers and that there was no agreement. This led to the
leaking of the 'The Danish Text', subtitled 'The Copenhagen Agreement', and the pro-
posed measures to keep average global temperature rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
It started an argument between developed and developing nations as it was brand new text
that had just appeared in the middle of the conference. Developing countries accused the
developed countries of working behind closed doors and making an agreement that suited
them without seeking consent from the developing nations. Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping,
chairman of the G77, said, 'It's an incredibly imbalanced text intended to subvert, abso-
lutely and completely, two years of negotiations. It does not recognize the proposals and
the voice of developing countries.'
The final blow to getting an agreement on binding targets came from the USA. Barack
Obama arrived only two days before the end of the conference, he convened a meeting of
the USA with the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) countries, while seeking
no discussions with the other UN nations, and he created the Copenhagen Accord. The
Copenhagen Accord recognizes the scientific case for keeping temperature rises below
2°C, but it does not contain a baseline for this target, nor commitments for reduced emis-
sions that would be necessary to achieve the target. Earlier proposals that would have
aimed to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C and cut CO
2
emissions by 80 per cent by 2050
were dropped. The agreement made was non-binding and countries had until January 2010
to provide their own voluntary targets. It was also made clear that any country that signed
up to the Copenhagen Accord was also stepping out of the Kyoto Protocol. Hence the USA
