Database Reference
In-Depth Information
Eventually, a more robust model would be able to address the potential effects of
warmer, rainier climates and the extent of disease spread across the country.
a. How should such a model be set up?
b. Gradually change the climate in the model and observe the results.
c. Introduce more dramatic climatic changes (e.g. by including an increase in
mean temperature, a decrease in precipitation, and increases in the standard
deviation around the means.) How do your results differ from those obtained
in part b?
3.a. Suppose that the typical annual confirmed case rate was 150 with 15 deaths.
Adjust the model to approximately duplicate this result.
3b.
Suppose global warming sets in. Illinois is expected to become drier and
warmer. The mean temperature used in the annual cycle is 40 degrees F. As-
sume it is 50 degrees F due to global warming in 30 years. Let the mean raining
event drop to .6 (see rainfall variable in the model) and run the calibrated model
to assess the changes in human St. Louis encephalitis mortality due to global
warming.
ENCEPHALITIS
ALL Controls
Annual Temp Cycle
=
(SIN((TIME
+
228)/58.1)*Annual Temp Range)
+
40
Annual Temp Range
=
50
Fall
264
Julian Date
=
=
MOD(TIME, 365)
M1
=
90
M2
=
80
M3
90
M3 as Larvae
=
=
0.8
M3 LS Adult
=
Mosq3 Life Span * ( 1
−
M3 as Larvae)*2/3
M3 LS Egg
=
Mosq3 Life Span * ( 1
−
M3 as Larvae ) / 3
M3 LS Larvae
=
M3 as Larvae*Mosq3 Life Span
Min Temp Range
=
8
Mosq3 Life Span
=
499
Spring
80
Std of Temp
=
=
6
T1
=
65
T2
=
60
T3
=
50
Year
=
INT(TIME/365)
+
1
Bird Population Dynamics
Bird Infected(t)
=
Bird Infected(t
−
dt)
+
(Bird Infection
+
Inf Migra In
−
Bird Disease Death
−
Inf Migra Out) * dt
INIT Bird Infected
=
0.001
